Archive for the 'Canadian Home Prices' Category

April 15, 2019

Is there a housing affordability crisis in Toronto? Recent news reports certainly seem to be leaning that way, but is that what’s really going on?

We’re breaking down the stats to look at the Toronto real estate market and what the data has to say about housing affordability.

  1. It’s now more expensive to buy than to rent.

According to the National Bank’s 2018 Q4 analysis, renting has become cheaper than buying in Toronto.

Analysts from the National Bank found that the price of the representative home (non-condo) in the metropolitan market in 2018 Q4 was $902,916. The household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $165,755.

The price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market in 2018 Q4: $536,082.
Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $98,413.
The premium/discount for buying compared to renting a two-bedroom condo in the GTA: 12%.

The months of saving required for the down payment of the representative home (at a saving rate of 10%): 112 months.
The months of saving required for the down payment of the representative condo (at a saving rate of 10%): 49 months.

  1. Resale activity was down in 2018.

RBC’s economics team found that resale activity slumped almost 16% in 2018 in Toronto. They don’t expect to see a meaningful rebound in 2019.

  1. Rental availability is at an all-time low.

According to the CMHC, the rental vacancy rate in Toronto dropped to a record low of 1.1% in 2018.

  1. But rental prices are continuing to increase.

Rentals.ca predicted that in 2019 the average rental rates will increase by 6% year over year on a national basis. In Toronto, the annual rental rate could increase as much as 11%.

The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto in February of 2019 was $2,149 — the highest in the country, according to Rentals.ca. The average for a two-bedroom: $2,620.

  1. Toronto’s position is dropping in national surveys.

Demographia recently released its annual ‘Housing Affordability Survey’ and ranked Toronto as 10th out of 293 cities around the world for unaffordability. In 2017, Toronto held the 21st position.

The 2018 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index also ranked Toronto poorly, putting them as having the third worst “bubble risk” in the world.

Looking at the statistics, the question still remains – does this define an affordability crisis?

And, if it does, what is the solution?

Let us know what you think on social media. GeoWarehouse is on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

GeoWarehouse’s property data tools can help you navigate housing affordability issues to find the best areas for your clients. Learn more today by calling 1-866-237-5937 or visiting www.geowarehouse.ca.

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March 13, 2019

March 13, 2019

 Largest retreat for a February outside of recession

In February the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.4% from the previous month.[1] Except for the recession year of 2009, it was the largest February decline in 19 years of index history. Indexes lost ground in nine of the 11 metropolitan markets of the composite index: Victoria (−2.0%), Hamilton (−1.4%), Quebec City (−1.2%), Calgary (−0.8%), Vancouver (−0.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.7%), Winnipeg (−0.4%), Toronto (−0.2%) and Edmonton (−0.1%). The only indexes up from the month before were those for Montreal (0.4%) and Halifax (0.3%).

All five constituent markets in Western Canada have now joined the downtrend. For Calgary it was the eighth consecutive month without a rise, a cumulative decline of 3.2%, for Vancouver the seventh (a cumulative −3.9%), for Edmonton the sixth (−3.5%) and for Victoria the fifth (−2.5%). The index for Winnipeg has risen only once in the last five months (cumulative −1.9%). In central Canada, Hamilton has gone five months without a rise (cumulative −2.3%) and Ottawa-Gatineau has risen in only one of the last five months (cumulative −0.8%). The index for Montreal, in striking contrast, has declined only once in the last 11 months (cumulative gain 5.3%) and is the only constituent index that was up from six months earlier. For the composite index it was a fifth consecutive month without a rise, for a cumulative decline of 1.4%.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In changes from 12 months earlier, only three indexes showed the weakness that has more recently become apparent in several regions: Calgary (−2.7%), Edmonton (−1.6%) and Vancouver (−1.1%). The change from a year earlier remained positive for Halifax (1.2%), Winnipeg (1.3%), Victoria (2.8%), Hamilton (3.0%), Quebec City (3.5%), Toronto (3.6%), Montreal (5.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.0%). The composite index was up 1.9% from a year earlier.

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In February, they were down from the previous month for Kitchener (−1.3%), St. Catharines (−1.0%), Oshawa (−0.5%) and Guelph (−0.3%). The index for Barrie was flat. Indexes were up for Peterborough (0.5%) and Brantford (1.5%). As with Toronto, Hamilton and Ottawa-Gatineau, none of these indexes was higher than it had been six months earlier.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five in Ontario and two in B.C. In February four of them were down from the month before: Sudbury (−3.4%), Kingston (−2.6%), Abbotsford Mission (−0.9%) and Windsor (−0.4%%). Kelowna was up 0.3%, Thunder Bay 0.3% and London 0.9%. Only two of these seven, Windsor and London, were up from six months earlier. In other words, of 25 metropolitan markets surveyed, only three – Montreal, Windsor and London – were up from six months earlier, the weakest diffusion of six-month gains for any February since the recession.

For the full report including historical data, please visit https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/03/february2019/.

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In the final quarter of 2018, Canadian housing affordability worsened for a 14th consecutive quarter, found economic research from the National Bank Housing Affordability Monitor.

Using data from the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, National Bank Deputy Chief Economist Matthieu Arseneau and Economist Kyle Dahms released a quarterly report on January 24, 2019 analyzing the final three months of 2018.

And they found that house prices are getting less affordable in many markets.

The Housing Affordability Monitor featured a representative home for each of the 10 metropolitan markets in the House Price Index, including the representative price for the condo market and for the non-condo market, and the average household income needed for each.

Here’s what they found for October, November, December of 2018:

1. Toronto Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $902,916

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $165,755

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $536,082

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $98,413

2. Montreal Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $369,234

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $67,783

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $276,889

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $50,831

3. Vancouver Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $1,318,768

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $242,096

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $638,842

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $117,277

4. Calgary Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $494,689

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $90,814

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $266,107

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $48,851

5. Edmonton Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $422,508

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $77,563

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $231,117

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $42,428

6. Ottawa-Gatineau Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $428,595

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $78,680

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $261,454

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $47,997

7. Quebec City Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $286,491

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $52,593

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $211,768

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $38,876

8. Winnipeg Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $321,259

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: 58,976

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $223,614

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $41,050

9. Hamilton Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $598,274

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $109,829

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $445,629

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $81,807

10. Victoria Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $850,469

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $156,127

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $485,937

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $89,207

In some markets, the quarterly report found that the gap between condo and non-condo affordability is shrinking. The worst deteriorations in affordability in Q4 were in Victoria, Toronto, and Vancouver. The only markets showing an improvement were Calgary and Edmonton. Countrywide, affordability worsened.

View the full 2018 Q4 report from the National Bank here: https://housepriceindex.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/NBFM-Housing-Affordability-Monitor-Q4_2018-Eng.pdf.

No matter what direction Canadian housing affordability heads, GeoWarehouse has tools that make you the property expert. Uncover real estate trends and opportunities before they hit the market.

Become a subscriber today. Call 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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As the saying goes, knowledge is power. And nowhere is that truer than the Canadian real estate market.

With the industry becoming increasingly competitive, sales professionals need resources that keep them in-the-know. In order to stand out, you need information that empowers you to make decisions.

There are two real estate resources every sales professional should use: the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index and the Teranet Market Insights Report.

Here’s what you need to know.

  1. Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

The Teranet-National Bank HPI is an independent representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.

The measurements are based on the property record of public land registries, where the sale price is available.

The Index is released every month and looks at 11 market across Canada: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal, Québec, and Halifax.

How it works:

The Index is estimated by tracking the observed or registered home prices over time. Properties with at least two sales are required in the calculations.

All properties that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index; this is known as the repeat sales methodology.

Properties that are not considered include those with:

a) non-arms-length sales,
b) change of type of property, for example after renovations,
c) data error, and
d) high turnover frequency (biannual or higher).

In the repeat sales methodology, the averaging of price appreciation from different pairs of sales is done using a complex estimation process in which each pair is a separate observation.

Why you should use it:

The HPI is particularly useful because it can give an accurate portrayal of home price shifts over time. The data is derived from the property records of public land registries — so you know it is accurate and trustworthy.

Often real estate agents look at house price figures from local MLS sales information. This isn’t necessarily a bad gauge, but it’s important to consider the Teranet HPI, too. That’s because the prices Teranet uses have been agreed to up to three months before the index is released and only finished transactions are used. If a sale falls through, the MLS data won’t always be accurate, but with the Teranet HPI you know you are looking at the final numbers.

The Teranet HPI also includes all transfer data, not just sales done through the MLS. This means there’s an estimated 20% more sales included — that could look like one in five sales being excluded from MLS reports.

Again, both should be taken into consideration, but if you are looking for accuracy and trends over time, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index is a report you won’t want to miss.

See the latest HPI: http://www.geowarehouseblog.ca/home-prices-trended-down-in-the-second-half-of-2018/.

  1. Teranet Market Insights Report

The second report you’ll want on your regular reading list is the Teranet Market Insights Report.

This release takes into account all recent trends in the Canadian real estate market — everything from house prices, to mortgage broker-lender share, to dwelling type popularity, to generational buying habits, and beyond.

Each MIR release deep dives into a different part of the housing market. For instance, the October 2018 report examined the surge in private lending, while the March 2018 report looked at the Canadian condo market.

This is a great way to stay on top of trends and patterns and then use that information in your real estate marketing.

How it works:

Analysts at Teranet watch the Canadian housing market, using data derived from provincial land registries. They synthesize that data into analysis that takes a high-level look at the current real estate market.

Why you should use it:

The Teranet MIR is one of the most comprehensive real estate reports available in the Canadian market. The data within is sourced from information you can trust. The unique position of Teranet in the real estate market means that they have a view of the industry that is difficult to parallel.

The data contained in the MIR is applicable in many ways — you can use it in your real estate marketing, business strategy, property searches, and more.

If you have any interest in following industry trends, this is the report for you.

See the latest MIR: http://www.geowarehouseblog.ca/october-2018-teranet-market-insights-report-surge-in-private-lending-in-the-gta/.

These resources can both be gamechangers, especially if your industry is feeling saturated. They can help you find new opportunities and look at the market in ways you may not have considered.

After reading the reports, you may want to put the information to use through your real estate tools — like GeoWarehouse, which uses the same information as the Teranet HPI and MIR.

You can access up-to-date property searches, comparable sales, demographic reports, and more.

Learn all about it today. Call 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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January 28, 2019

Last year in 2018 we saw many changes to the Canadian housing market. Now that 2019 is here, what will this year bring?

We’re breaking down real estate predictions for the year ahead. Here’s what’s on our radar:

1. Interest Rate Increases

In 2018, we saw Canadian interest rates rise from 1% to 1.75% and more hikes are on the horizon for 2019. Economists speculate we may see interest rates reach 2.25% by 2020.

This may seem small, but it could have a big impact on Canadian household debt. It may change what kinds of houses Canadians are able to afford and how well they can keep up with expenses, like utility payments.

2. Housing Prices

Overall, in 2018, house prices in Canada rose at a slow rate — the slowest since 2009 in some months. The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index has captured all of the data from the past year. Toronto and Vancouver have struggled, but other markets, like Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau, have recorded larger increases over the past few months.

In 2019, we may see more stabilization, but it will likely take more time before we return to where we were.

3. Dwelling Shifts

With increased interest rates and mortgage stress tests, homebuyers are gravitating towards different dwelling types — in particular condos and multi-family units. Supply for single-family residential homes is tight in major cities.

This may mean that multi-family units continue to rise in popularity. It could also mean that more families seek out different areas to reside in — for example, opting for an affordable small town instead of a bigger urban centre.

4. More Affordable Housing

In 2018, the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) joined forces with other agencies to lobby the provincial government for more affordable housing options for millennials. Particularly in Toronto, OREA has said there is a housing crisis.

This conversation is taking place across the country about how to create more affordable housing, especially with home prices on the rise. We expect these talks will continue into 2019.

5. Insurance Premiums May Rise

As of January 1, 2019, new MICAT (mortgage insurer capital adequacy test) guidelines are in effect, which could see default insurance premiums rise.

6. Technology

Digital transformation has been a buzzword for a while, but in 2019 we are entering a new age of real estate technology. On the residential front, this will look like more smart devices in homes — such as voice technology using Amazon’s Alexa or the Google Home

systems. Home buyers may also want to control lighting and other utilities from mobile devices and the like.

On the real estate sales front, more technology also amounts to more opportunities for sales professionals. We may see a surge in paperless real estate, or more automation being included in property evaluation, like aerial imagery from drones or viewing a home through virtual reality (VR).

No matter what changes affect the real estate market in 2019, GeoWarehouse can help you adapt. Our tools are accurate, up-to-date, and easy to access, meaning you’ll be able to stay agile and competitive.

Learn more by calling 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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November 26, 2018

There is one real estate opportunity that seems to only be growing in popularity: selling condos.

The Canadian condo market continues to boom. From 2016 to 2018, more than 14% of private mortgages came from condominiums.

In June 2018, residential construction starts across Canada surged to 248,000 units, driven by condos.

“While there has been some moderation in price growth and less speculative demand in the single-family home segment, prices for condominiums have continued to increase rapidly in some markets,” the Bank of Canada noted in its July 2018 Monetary Policy Report.

Condos have also benefitted from tougher mortgage rules and increased interest rates. As house prices have gone up, condos have remained the more affordable option. This means that not only are younger buyers opting for condos over traditional homes, but so are older buyers. For instance, some members of Generation X are choosing to move into condos for a smaller mortgage.

In 2017, three out of every four homes built were multi-family units, compared to 65% the decade before.

If you sell real estate in Canada, the signs are there that this is the time to consider selling condos, too.

Should you decide to join the condo market, or ramp up your efforts, here are some best practices to keep in mind:

  • Look at property details. Just like you would request a property report for a single-family dwelling, you should do the same for a condo. For instance, with a GeoWarehouse report you can see all condo units in a building, search by level, look up related PINs, access the full legal description, and more.
  • Don’t only consider constructed condos. Look also at pre-construction condos. New condo buildings are being constructed quickly, especially in larger urban areas like Toronto and Vancouver. Sell clients on making a decision early to beat the rush.
  • Condos aren’t just for younger buyers. As we mentioned above, condos used to be the millennials’ residence, but that’s not always the case these days. More and more older generations are choosing condos amid new mortgage rules, increased interest rates, or wanting to stay in an urban area. While millennials are certainly still a big market, they’re not the only market.
  • Look at what else the building offers. There may be additional assets included with a condo sale, like a parking space or storage lockers. Unlike a traditional dwelling type, a condo can come with other perks, too — security guards, an on-site gym, a luxury view, etc. Play up these features in your sales pitch.
  • Focus on unique features. Condos are a space sacrifice, especially if a potential buyer is used to a larger home. But because they are rising in popularity, there are many more options for comfortable condo living today, like urban agriculture, unique storage ideas, and two-in-one furniture items. Don’t be afraid to get creative with your staging.Access condo status certificates online. There is no need to request your condo status certificates by fax anymore. Instead, use a tool like GeoWarehouse to do it all online.

While the condo boom is continuing to thrive, it makes sense to take advantage if it’s in your area. GeoWarehouse can help you stay on top of the latest condo trends and access property information.

Learn more by calling 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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November 23, 2018

The Canadian real estate market is in a state of fluctuation, which can make determining a listing price difficult to say the least.

Between rising interest rates, mortgage stress testing regulations, uncertain house prices, increased competition, and the like, there are many factors that might be affecting your usual process for determining property value.

That said, there are several practices that you can use to set a listing price no matter what is happening in the Canadian housing market. Here are our top picks.

  1. Assess the Property Details

This is step number one because it should be on your list regardless of market conditions. You need to understand the property details. For instance, what year was the home built? What data is included in the Land Registry?

In order to start thinking about your listing price, you need to know the answers to these questions and more.

  1. Get an AVM

You may have considered getting an appraisal done — this can be a great idea. But have you thought about an automated valuation model (AVM) report as well?

An AVM report can confirm home value, ownership, and other details quickly and efficiently. It can estimate property value by comparing and analyzing property characteristics against public record data.  It doesn’t replace an appraisal, but it is a good companion to one.

While an AVM can’t review interior and exterior property conditions, some include street view imagery that can help identify issues with exterior conditions, such as property boundary discrepancies. It’s great to leverage automation and historical data analysis to generate the latest information on pricing and ownership and create a big picture report.

  1. Consider the MPAC Assessment

MPAC is the largest assessment jurisdiction in North America. It determines revenue requirements, municipal tax rates, and property tax collection for the Government of Ontario.

An MPAC assessment isn’t always the same as a property appraisal, and often listing prices are different from MPAC’s valuation. That said, it is still valuable information that can be used in your determination.

  1. View the Sales History

Along with the property details, you will also want to consider the sales history. While today’s market may be very different from the last time this house sold (particularly if it is an older home), that data is still important to review.

  1. Look Up Comparable Sales

One of the best ways to determine home value is to see how comparable properties are selling. You can get a real-time view of what similar houses have sold for and use that to set your listing price.

You can also narrow your search by neighbourhood to specifically understand the area where you are selling. Certain regions will be more desirable based on factors like school proximity, parks, shopping areas, and the like. This will stay in style even with a market shift.

  1. Use a House Price Index

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index is released every month with up-to-date information on house prices across Canada. This digs into 11 different markets and the house price trends those regions are experiencing.

This is important for you to know when making your assessment.

  1. Examine Market Insights

In a shifting real estate market, you want to stay on top of the latest real estate trends. For instance, if you know that condos are some of the most popular dwelling types for millennials, and you are trying to set a listing price for a condo in an area that appeals to millennials, that will help make your decision.

The Teranet Market Insights Report is released regularly and contains data that you can use for your property valuation needs.

While it may be simpler to set listing prices during non-turbulent housing market conditions, it’s still possible to do so in more uncertain times. Be sure to do your due diligence and assess information from multiple sources. Trends can change so fast that you need to stay on top of the data.

Luckily, GeoWarehouse makes it easy to stay informed up-to-the-minute. Our property reports take data from the Province of Ontario Land Registration Information System (POLARIS), so you can trust the reports you receive are accurate and timely. They are also available almost instantly, so you can make a decision with the latest figures.

Learn all about our GeoWarehouse reports today. Call 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

Want more information on determining a listing price? Download our free eBook, Digital Property Evaluation in 1-2-3! Get your copy here: http://www2.geowarehouse.ca/property-evaluation-general/.

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NOVEMBER 15, 2018

Home price index down in October in all component markets except Montreal

In October the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.4% from the previous month.[1] An October decline is not the norm – this was only the fourth in 20 years of index history. It was also the first index decline in eight months. The most striking aspect of the retreat is its diffusion. For the first time since December 2014, the component indexes for 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed were down on the month – Victoria (−0.1%), Toronto (−0.2%), Winnipeg (−0.2%), Calgary (−0.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.4%), Hamilton (−0.5%), Edmonton (−0.7%), Vancouver (−0.8%), Quebec City (−1.0%) and Halifax (−1.0%). The exception was Montreal, whose seventh consecutive monthly gain (+0.2%) was consistent with its seller’s-market conditions. For Calgary it was the 10th month without a rise in the last 13 months, hardly surprising considering the worsening of market conditions over the period. For Vancouver it was the third consecutive month without a rise.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In October the composite index was up 2.8% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in August and September because a year earlier the index fell abruptly in those two months. October 12-month rises were well above the countrywide average in Victoria (5.2%) and Vancouver (4.6%) thanks to gains earlier this year and in Montreal (5.0%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (5.0%) thanks to gains in the last six months. Indexes were also up from a year earlier in Winnipeg (3.4%), Hamilton (2.8%), Halifax (2.4%) and Toronto (1.9%). Indexes were down from a year earlier in Edmonton (−0.5%), Quebec City (−0.6%) and Calgary (−1.4%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for sevenother urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In October, all of these were down from the previous month. Two of them, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. In October. Three of these were down from the previous month. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from -0.1% in Thunder Bay to 11.4% in Windsor.

Of the 25 metropolitan-market indexes, only five did not decrease in October, the smallest diffusion of gains since December 2012.

For the full report including historical data, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca.

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October 12, 2018

OCTOBER 12, 2018

National Composite Index: Flat in September

In September the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM came in flat from the month before,1 matching the historical average for September since 2010. Only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed gains, the weakest diffusion in six months. These were Winnipeg (1.1%), Montreal (0.5%), Victoria (0.5%), Hamilton (0.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.1%). For Hamilton and Montreal, it was the sixth consecutive monthly rise, for cumulative gains of 5.8% and 4.3% respectively. For Ottawa-Gatineau it was the fifth straight rise for a cumulative gain of 7.8%. Of course, these gains incorporate usual upward price pressure from April to August. For Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau, the rising trend still persists even with correction of these seasonal effects.

The indexes for Vancouver and Edmonton came in flat on the month. For Edmonton it was a sixth straight month without a decline, for a cumulative gain of 3.4% over the period. Indexes were down on the month for Toronto (−0.1%), Calgary (−0.1%), Halifax (−0.2%) and Quebec City (−0.6%). If the Vancouver index were corrected for seasonal variation, it would have shown retreats in each of the last four months. If the Calgary index were so corrected it would have shown retreats in each of the last three months. This observation is consistent with declines in home sales reported by the real estate boards of these two markets.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In September the composite index was up 2.1% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in August because the composite index began declining in September 2017. Thanks to advances earlier this year, the 12-month rise was well above the countrywide average in Vancouver (6.2%), Victoria (5.5%) and Halifax (4.8%), while very recent advances resulted in relatively large 12-month gains in Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%) and Montréal (4.8%). Gains over a year earlier were smaller in Winnipeg (2.8%), Hamilton (1.4%) and Quebec City (0.7%). Three indexes were down from a year earlier: Edmonton (−0.5%), Toronto (−0.8%) and Calgary (−1.3%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other metropolitan areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 0.9% in Sudbury to 11.3% in Abbotsford-Mission and Windsor.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

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July 11, 2016

geo2The first quarter of 2016 has closed so we thought, what better time to recap Canadian housing numbers? A good starting point is the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ (HPI). The Teranet National Bank House Price Index reports the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.

We like to rely on this index for two reasons:

  1. Where the data comes from – data is derived from property records of public land registries – which is the most accurate source for land data.
  2. Coverage – the HPI covers 11 major Canadian Cities – Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal, Québec and Halifax.

Here is how Q1 played out:

  • Jan 2016 – Home prices dropped by 0.1%
  • Feb 2016 – Home prices increased by 0.6%
  • Mar 2016 – Home prices Increased by 0.8%
  • Q2 Teaser: April 2016 – Home prices increased by 1.2%

Good news for real estate sales professionals – 3 out of 4 months saw increases. In fact, the past 3 months consecutively have shown increases.

The Vancouver and Toronto markets continue to fuel the market with red hot increases to property values as evidenced by house price indices across the board. The average price of a single family detached home in Canada was widely reported to have soared over 1 million dollars coming into 2016 with Canada’s average recently reported by CBC to be over $500,000 – you can read more on this here: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-house-prices-march-1.3537143.

Many have speculated that foreign investment is, at the least, behind what seems to be a boom in British Columbia, to the point where the government has even expressed concerns over supply vs. demand. Here are some interesting articles on the topic to whet your appetite:

Meanwhile, in Toronto, soaring house prices are pushing buyers to look outside of the city and we don’t just mean in the GTA. Toronto’s market has led to booms in Hamilton, Barrie and other cities that are not considered the GTA.

No doubt that the Bank of Canada maintaining the incredibly low lending rate of 0.5% is helping as well. With a strong first quarter, all indicators seem to point towards a strong spring and summer in this ever exciting Canadian real estate market. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that things continue to grow as they have been over the last few months!

For more on the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ please visit: http://www.housepriceindex.ca/.

Want to take advantage of the tools that give you a bigger piece of the action? Visit www.geowarehouse.ca today.

 

 

 

 

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