Archive for the 'Canadian Home Prices' Category

October 12, 2018

OCTOBER 12, 2018

National Composite Index: Flat in September

In September the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM came in flat from the month before,1 matching the historical average for September since 2010. Only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed gains, the weakest diffusion in six months. These were Winnipeg (1.1%), Montreal (0.5%), Victoria (0.5%), Hamilton (0.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.1%). For Hamilton and Montreal, it was the sixth consecutive monthly rise, for cumulative gains of 5.8% and 4.3% respectively. For Ottawa-Gatineau it was the fifth straight rise for a cumulative gain of 7.8%. Of course, these gains incorporate usual upward price pressure from April to August. For Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau, the rising trend still persists even with correction of these seasonal effects.

The indexes for Vancouver and Edmonton came in flat on the month. For Edmonton it was a sixth straight month without a decline, for a cumulative gain of 3.4% over the period. Indexes were down on the month for Toronto (−0.1%), Calgary (−0.1%), Halifax (−0.2%) and Quebec City (−0.6%). If the Vancouver index were corrected for seasonal variation, it would have shown retreats in each of the last four months. If the Calgary index were so corrected it would have shown retreats in each of the last three months. This observation is consistent with declines in home sales reported by the real estate boards of these two markets.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In September the composite index was up 2.1% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in August because the composite index began declining in September 2017. Thanks to advances earlier this year, the 12-month rise was well above the countrywide average in Vancouver (6.2%), Victoria (5.5%) and Halifax (4.8%), while very recent advances resulted in relatively large 12-month gains in Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%) and Montréal (4.8%). Gains over a year earlier were smaller in Winnipeg (2.8%), Hamilton (1.4%) and Quebec City (0.7%). Three indexes were down from a year earlier: Edmonton (−0.5%), Toronto (−0.8%) and Calgary (−1.3%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other metropolitan areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 0.9% in Sudbury to 11.3% in Abbotsford-Mission and Windsor.

For the full report including historical data, please visit:

July 11, 2016

geo2The first quarter of 2016 has closed so we thought, what better time to recap Canadian housing numbers? A good starting point is the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ (HPI). The Teranet National Bank House Price Index reports the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.

We like to rely on this index for two reasons:

  1. Where the data comes from – data is derived from property records of public land registries – which is the most accurate source for land data.
  2. Coverage – the HPI covers 11 major Canadian Cities – Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal, Québec and Halifax.

Here is how Q1 played out:

  • Jan 2016 – Home prices dropped by 0.1%
  • Feb 2016 – Home prices increased by 0.6%
  • Mar 2016 – Home prices Increased by 0.8%
  • Q2 Teaser: April 2016 – Home prices increased by 1.2%

Good news for real estate sales professionals – 3 out of 4 months saw increases. In fact, the past 3 months consecutively have shown increases.

The Vancouver and Toronto markets continue to fuel the market with red hot increases to property values as evidenced by house price indices across the board. The average price of a single family detached home in Canada was widely reported to have soared over 1 million dollars coming into 2016 with Canada’s average recently reported by CBC to be over $500,000 – you can read more on this here:

Many have speculated that foreign investment is, at the least, behind what seems to be a boom in British Columbia, to the point where the government has even expressed concerns over supply vs. demand. Here are some interesting articles on the topic to whet your appetite:

Meanwhile, in Toronto, soaring house prices are pushing buyers to look outside of the city and we don’t just mean in the GTA. Toronto’s market has led to booms in Hamilton, Barrie and other cities that are not considered the GTA.

No doubt that the Bank of Canada maintaining the incredibly low lending rate of 0.5% is helping as well. With a strong first quarter, all indicators seem to point towards a strong spring and summer in this ever exciting Canadian real estate market. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that things continue to grow as they have been over the last few months!

For more on the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ please visit:

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geo2Many Canadian economists have speculated that the Canadian economy is at risk of being in a recession. This would appear to be very scary news considering that it has been widely reported that Canadians are carrying record levels of debt.

The question many have had is will this end up having a negative impact on the real estate market?

Look at urban centres like Toronto where it was recently reported that the average sale price of a single detached home has exceeded 1 million dollars. Will these markets stay hot?

Some speculate that urban centres may cool off while the “burbs” will heat up. One thing is for sure, when the economy falters and Canadians are struggling to maintain their housing payments with their other bills like payments to debt, some will look at downsizing. This may include moving a little bit further away to be able to buy more for less.

When Canadian families are struggling financially there may be less lower income families coming into the housing market, but folks moving to put cash flow back into their households can more than offset this.

In a strained economic environment you have to be even more diligent when pre-qualifying new clients. Why?

  1. Pre market-crash of 2008 – mortgage financing rules were more lax so there are a high volume of people walking around who took out mortgages at 90-95% the value of their homes, amortized over 35 years and so have less equity.
  1. People in debt generally turn to debt consolidation as a first measure before making the difficult decision to sell their home. This can result in 1 very large mortgage refinance or perhaps 2 or 3 additional mortgages behind the first mortgage.
  1. When people have financial problems they can fall behind making monthly payments to things like property taxes, condo fees, income taxes and other bills leading to property liens – the homeowner may not even know is one has been registered.

What do the above 3 scenarios have in common? They can all result in there not being enough equity to pay you!

You can mitigate this occurrence by doing a basic preliminary background check on new listings:

  1. Validate that your client is the legal homeowner
  2. Look at the sales history of the property
  3. Estimate the value by reviewing comparable sales
  4. Review financial encumbrances like mortgages
  5. Check for liens

An unstable or underperforming economy doesn’t necessarily mean a negative impact to the real estate market but what it does mean is that you have to be agile to adapt in conditions that may emerge as a result.

If you would like to be able to access a tool that enables you to perform the due diligence discussed in this article and more please visit  




Canadian Home PricesAccording to a press release issued early this year, The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is forecasting stronger sales than expected through this summer and fall. In the past 6 months the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index has reported month over month increases in house prices which would seem to signify the same.

The CREA release seems to credit the west coast for stronger increases than expected, while increases were weaker moving to the eastern side of the country. Projections were revised to include increased sales in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario – while Ontario’s numbers were noted to increase marginally.

According to CREA it is anticipated that nationally home prices will climb by approximately 3.7% in 2014, with the highest increases expected to occur in BC (an anticipated 8.4% increase). CREA touts Calgary, Toronto and parts of Quebec as areas where markets are well balanced and there is far more demand than supply.

The question is, if property prices are on the rise signifying more supply than demand, what does this mean to you and are you experiencing an increase in business?

You can read the full press release here


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