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The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™  was unchanged in March – the first time outside a recession when the March composite index was not up at least 0.2 percentage points from February and the first time outside a recession when March indexes were up for only four of the 11 metropolitan markets of the composite index – Victoria (1.0%), Vancouver (0.5%), Winnipeg (0.5%) and Quebec City (0.1%). The index for Toronto was flat. Indexes for the other six markets were all down on the month: Montreal −0.2%, Hamilton −0.3%, Calgary −0.4%, Ottawa-Gatineau −0.7%, Halifax −1.0%, Edmonton −1.3%.

The rise of the Vancouver index was the 13th in 15 months, taking it to a new high. In recent months its gains have been smaller, consistent with the relaxation of the market reported by the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board. The Toronto index is down 7.3% from its peak of last July. The raw (unsmoothed) Toronto index* has declined a similar 7.9% over that period, though its condo segment is unchanged from July – all other types of housing taken together are down 10.4%. The index for neighbouring Hamilton has declined in six of the last seven months, for a cumulative 5.9% drop from its August peak. The Ottawa-Gatineau index has declined in five of the last six months and is down 2.4% from its September peak. The Calgary and Edmonton indexes are also down from six months ago.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Because of the rise of the composite index from March to August last year, its reading for March 2018 was up 6.6% from a year earlier. This is the smallest 12-month rise since May 2016 and a ninth consecutive deceleration from the record 14.2% of last June. The March 12-month rise of the composite index was exceeded only by the indexes for Vancouver (15.4%) and Victoria (12.5%), which were followed by Halifax (6.1%), Hamilton (5.9%), Toronto (4.3%), Montreal (4.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (3.0%), Winnipeg (2.9%), Calgary (0.4%) and Edmonton (0.2%). The Quebec City index was down 0.4% from a year earlier.

Indexes exist for seven Golden Horseshoe markets outside Toronto and Hamilton. Six of them – Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines and Oshawa – were down from last July, the exception being Peterborough. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario. Of the total of 14, 13 were up from a year earlier, with rises ranging from 4.4% in Barrie, Ont., to 25.3% in Abbotsford-Mission, B.C.  The index for Sudbury was down 3.1% from a year earlier.

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: housepriceindex.ca

 

*Note on methodology: The current-month data used to calculate the index are those of closed sales registered in the provincial land registry. To illustrate the home price trend, the published indexes of the 11 metropolitan markets entering into the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index™ are moving averages of the last three months of raw indexes. This procedure evens out month-to-month fluctuations. More granular monthly data are available upon request, possibly subject to subscription fees. For further information about the methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca

Copyright 2018 Teranet Inc. and National Bank of Canada

Teranet is located at 123 Front Street West, Suite 700.  Toronto ON.  M5J 2M2. 1.855.787.8439
National Bank is located at 1155 Metcalfe, 5th floor, Montreal PQ H3B 4S9. 1.800.361.8838

 

 

 

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In February the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM retreated 0.1% from the previous month, following December and January rises that had interrupted a downtrend. It was the first February decline since 2013. The index was up in only three of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, the fewest since October 2014: Vancouver (+0.4%), Hamilton (+0.2%) and Halifax (+0.8%). The index for Victoria was flat on the month and the other seven component indexes were down: Toronto −0.1%, Montreal −0.3%, Ottawa-Gatineau −0.7%, Edmonton −0.8%, Calgary −0.8%, Winnipeg −1.0%, Quebec City −1.5%.

For Vancouver it was the 12th rise in 14 months, taking its index to a new record. However, this market’s raw (unsmoothed) index was down 1.3% on the month, a retreat coinciding with a cooling of home sales as reported by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. The raw index for Toronto declined after three consecutive rises. In previous months, observers had noted a certain haste on the part of buyers to beat the entry into effect of tougher conditions for obtaining an uninsured mortgage. The advance of the Hamilton index interrupted a run of five declines. The retreat of the Montreal index was the first in 14 months. This is not a concern since the Greater Montréal Real Estate Board reported the strongest sales in six years for the first two months of a year.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

The composite index in February was up 7.5% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since March 2016 and an eighth consecutive deceleration from last June’s record 12-month gain of 14.2%. The February 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (15.8%), Victoria (12.4%) and Hamilton (8.4%). It was below the countrywide average but still respectable in Toronto (6.2%), Halifax (5.3%), Montreal (5.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (3.7%) and Winnipeg (3.0%). For Calgary it was a minimal 0.6%. There were declines from a year earlier in the indexes for Edmonton (−0.3%) and Quebec City (−2.3%).

Of the 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes for seven were down from the previous month. Indexes for all 14 were up from a year earlier, with rises ranging from 1.2% in Sudbury, Ontario, to 23.9% in Abbotsford-Mission, B.C.

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: https://housepriceindex.ca

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February 14, 2018

Toronto index stopped trending down in January

In January the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  rose 0.3% from the previous month, a tic higher than the historical average for January and a second consecutive monthly increase. However, only four of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed gains – the first time since January 2016 that a rise in the Composite Index has had so little breadth. It was due mainly to a second straight monthly jump of the index for the important Vancouver market (1.2% in January on the heels of 1.3% in December). The Toronto index rose 0.2%, the Victoria index 1.0% and the Montreal index edged up 0.1%. All the other component indexes were down on the month: Hamilton (−0.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (‑0.2%), Edmonton (−0.3%), Calgary (−0.3%), Halifax (-1.0%), Winnipeg (−1.1%) and Quebec City (−2.0%).  For Montreal, it was a 13th monthly increase, and for Hamilton it was a fifth decrease in a row.

The rise of the Toronto index was the first in six months. The raw (unsmoothed) Toronto index [1]on which it is based was up for a third consecutive month. The firming of the smoothed index is due entirely to condo dwellings. The smoothed index for non-condo units fell in January for a sixth straight month, bringing its cumulative decline to 9.6%.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

For Vancouver, January was a ninth consecutive month without a decline. The cumulative rise over that period was 14.5% – 18.2% for condo units and 11.4% for all other housing. Vancouver and Montreal were the only markets surveyed whose index reached an all-time high in January.

In January the composite index was up 8.7% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since May 2016 and a seventh consecutive deceleration from the record 12-month gains of 14.2% last June. The January 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (16.9%), Victoria (12.3%) and Hamilton (9.8%). Toronto’s rise of 8.4% from a year earlier was slightly below the countrywide average. The 12-month advance was below the countrywide average but still respectable for Ottawa-Gatineau (5.6%), Montreal (5.4%), Winnipeg (3.6%) and Halifax (2.5%). It was minimal for Calgary (0.1%) and zero for Edmonton. The Quebec City index was down 1.2% from a year earlier.

Indexes were up from a year earlier for all of 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, though the rise ranged widely from 2.8% in Sudbury (Ontario) to 21.4% in Abbotsford-Mission (B.C.).

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: www.housepriceindex.ca

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In December the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  edged up 0.2% from the previous month, interrupting a three-month run of declines. However, only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed index increases. The one-tick rise of the composite index was due to a 1.3% jump of the index for the large Vancouver market. The other indexes showing gains were Winnipeg (1.9%), Halifax (1.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (0.4%) and Edmonton (0.1%); without Vancouver their combined gain would not have offset the combined decline of the indexes for Toronto (−0.3%), Victoria (−1.0%), Calgary (−0.6%), Hamilton (−0.5%) and Montreal (−0.2%). The index for Quebec City was flat.

For the Toronto index it was a fifth consecutive decline. However, the raw index* for Toronto rose 0.2% in November and 0.1% in December. If it edges up again or stays flat in January, the sequence of monthly declines of the smoothed index would then be interrupted. The upticks of Toronto’s raw index in the last two months of 2017 can be laid to the desire of some buyers to acquire housing before January 1, when a new and stiffer eligibility rule comes into effect on qualification for an uninsured mortgage.

  Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

For the Vancouver index it was an eighth consecutive month without a decline, a period over which it rose 13.2%. That breaks down as 16.7% for condos and 10.2% for other housing. Vancouver, Winnipeg and Halifax were the only indexes to reach a new record in December.

In December the composite index was up 9.1% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month gain since May 2016 and the fifth straight deceleration from record 14.2% gains in June and July. The December 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (16.0%), Victoria (11.5%), Hamilton (11.3%) and Toronto (9.0%). Montreal’s 12-month gain was 7.0%, less than the countrywide average but noteworthy. The 12-month advance was well above the rate of inflation in Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%), Winnipeg (4.0%) and Halifax (3.6%). It was much smaller in Calgary (0.5%), Quebec City (0.4%) and Edmonton (0.2%).

Among 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes for Sudbury, Guelph and St. Catharines–Niagara were down for a third consecutive month, the index for Oshawa for a fifth. All 14 markets were nevertheless up from a year earlier, though the 12-month increase ranged widely, from 3.8% in Thunder Bay to 19.0% in London.

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: www.housepriceindex.ca

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In November, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was down 0.5% from the previous month, the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest for a month of November outside of a recession. Indexes were down for four of the 11 metropolitan areas surveyed: Toronto (−1.4%), Hamilton (−1.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.8%) and Edmonton (−0.7%). Indexes for the two West Coast markets, Vancouver and Victoria, were flat. Indexes were up for Montreal (1.0%), Quebec City (0.9%), Halifax (0.8%), (Calgary 0.7%) and Winnipeg (0.5%). For Toronto, it was the fourth straight monthly decline, for a total drop of 7.1%. For Hamilton, it was the third straight decline, for Ottawa-Gatineau and Edmonton the second.

However, the raw index* for Toronto was up 0.2% in November after four consecutive monthly declines totalling −8.5%. The retreat did not occur uniformly across all types of housing. The condo sub-index fell 4.4% in two months and then partly recovered with a gain of 2.3% over the last two months. Meanwhile, the sub-index for other types of housing declined in each of the last five months, for a total drop of −10.8%. Last month’s decline was the smallest of the five at −0.6%. November’s increase in the raw index could have been caused by some buyers rushing to buy before the implementation in January of the new ruling on qualification to an uninsured mortgage. The assumption of a rush is based on the fact that sales rose from October to November, bucking the usual seasonal trend.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

The stabilization of the Vancouver index in November came after six consecutive months of all-time highs. The condo subindex has been especially vigorous, 10 consecutive months of increases for a total rise of 19.0%. The Montreal and Halifax indexes were also at record highs.

In November the composite index was up 9.2% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month gain since June 2016 and a fourth consecutive deceleration from record 12-month gains of 14.2% in both June and July. The November 12-month rise was led by Victoria (14.0%), Vancouver (13.5%), Hamilton (12.3%) and Toronto (10.6%). The 12-month advance was much smaller in Montreal (6.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (4.9%), Halifax (2.1%), Calgary (1.8%), Quebec City (1.0%), Winnipeg (0.8%) and Edmonton (0.2%).

Among 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes for Barrie and Oshawa were down for a fourth straight month and those for Brantford and Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo for a third straight month. All 14 indexes were nevertheless up from a year earlier, though the 12-month increase ranged widely from 3.7% in Thunder Bay to 19.3% in the St. Catharines–Niagara market

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: https://housepriceindex.ca

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Index Retreated 1% in October

Author: GeoWarehouse
November 15, 2017

In October the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was down 1.0% from the previous month, a second consecutive monthly decline and the largest since September 2010. The retreat was due to a 2.8% drop of the index for the Toronto market, the country’s largest. Indexes were also down on the month for five other metropolitan areas of the composite index: Hamilton (−1.8%), Edmonton (−0.7%), Winnipeg (−0.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.3%) and Calgary (−0.2%). Indexes were up on the month for Halifax (1.3%), Vancouver (0.7%), Quebec City (0.6%), Montreal (0.4%) and Victoria (0.1%). For Toronto’s index it was the third straight monthly decline and for Hamilton’s the second, in both cases following 18 consecutive monthly gains. The declines of the Calgary and Edmonton indexes ended runs of six monthly gains, that of the Ottawa-Gatineau index a run of five gains. The Vancouver, Victoria and Montreal indexes were at record highs in October.

The index for Vancouver dropped after the August 2016 implementation of a tax on acquisitions by foreigners. But the market remained tight and by the beginning of this year the index had regained the lost ground. It has risen to new records in each of the last six months. Victoria’s has risen to a new record for an eighth straight month.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Among 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes were down on the month for all but one of the 12 in Ontario, the exception being Kingston.

In October the composite index was up 10.0% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since June 2016. It was the third consecutive deceleration from the record 12-month gains of 14.2% in both June and July. The October 12-month rise was led by Toronto (13.4%), Hamilton (15.7%), Vancouver (12.0%) and Victoria (14.4%). With this result Vancouver has rejoined the ranks of markets whose indexes have risen more than the countrywide average. The 12-month advance was much smaller in Montreal (6.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.0%), Halifax (1.9%), Calgary (1.8%), Edmonton (0.8%), Quebec City (0.6%) and Winnipeg (0.1%).

Index values were up from a year earlier in all 14 of the markets not included in the composite index, though the 12-month increase ranged widely – from 1.0% in Thunder Bay to 23.6% in St. Catharines–Niagara

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

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June 12, 2017

If you haven’t already noticed, the brand new Teranet-National Bank House Price Index launched last week. Tried, tested and true – our methodolody is relied upon by many and the changes to the application make accessing the information you need that much easier.

Check out the new website at http://www.housepriceindex.ca/.

Interested in learning more about the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index?

Check out this quick video that walks you through our methodology.

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HPI Has a Brand New Look and Feel

Author: GeoWarehouse
June 9, 2017

We are pleased to announce that HPI has a new look and feel, including a brand new website! We hope you enjoy the experience. Check it out at http://www.housepriceindex.ca/.

Interested in learning more or taking the new Teranet-National Bank House Price Index for a test drive?

Watch this quick video:

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