Archive for the 'House Price Index' Category

Weakness Concentrated in the West

Author: GeoWarehouse
February 13, 2019

February 13, 2019

 Weakness concentrated in the West

In January the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.1% from the previous month.[1] It was the fifth consecutive month without a rise, the longest such run since March 2013, and was notable for marked retreats in the three largest markets of Western Canada: Edmonton (−0.8%), Calgary (−0.5%) and Vancouver (−0.3%). The index for Ottawa-Gatineau was also down (−0.3%). Indexes for Victoria and Hamilton were flat. There were monthly rises for Quebec City (+1.3%), Halifax (+0.7%), Montreal (+0.2%), Toronto (+0.1%) and Winnipeg (+0.1%).

Those three westernmost markets have been trending down markedly for months now. For Calgary it was a seventh month without a gain (cumulative decline -2.4%), for Vancouver the sixth (−3.2%), for Edmonton the fifth (−3.5%). There were smaller cumulative declines, after four months with no rises, in Victoria (−0.5%) and Hamilton (−1.0%). For Montreal, on the other hand, the index was up for the ninth time in 10 months for a cumulative 5.0% gain. Montreal and Quebec City were the only indexes at an all-time high in January.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

The softness of the three largest markets of the West was also apparent in the changes from a year earlier –Calgary down 2.8%, Edmonton down 2.4%, Vancouver flat. The eight other markets in the composite index were up from a year earlier – Winnipeg 0.7%, Halifax 1.7%, Quebec City 3.1%, Toronto 3.6%, Montreal 4.5%, Hamilton 4.6%, Victoria 4.9%, Ottawa-Gatineau 6.0%. For the composite index the 12-month rise was 2.2%.

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In January, they were up from the previous month for Peterborough (0.7%), Brantford (0.4%), Oshawa (0.1%) and Kitchener (0.1%), flat for Barrie, and down for Guelph (−0.2%) and St. Catharines (−0.6%). From August 2018, all seven indexes were down or at best flat: Peterborough −4.1%, Brantford −3.6%, Barrie −2.1%, Oshawa −2.0%, Guelph −1.3%, Kitchener −0.2%, St. Catharines flat.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. In January, indexes declined for Abbotsford-Mission (−0.2%), Thunder Bay (−0.3%), Windsor (−0.4%) and Kelowna (−1.3%) and rose for London (0.3%), Sudbury (1.0%) and Kingston (1.8%). From last August, indexes were down for Abbotsford-Mission (−1.9%), Kelowna (−3.2%) and Thunder Bay (−5,6 %), essentially flat for Sudbury, and up for London (+2.3%), Windsor (+2.5%) and Kingston (+2.6%).

For the full report including historical data, please visit https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/02/january2019/.

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In the final quarter of 2018, Canadian housing affordability worsened for a 14th consecutive quarter, found economic research from the National Bank Housing Affordability Monitor.

Using data from the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, National Bank Deputy Chief Economist Matthieu Arseneau and Economist Kyle Dahms released a quarterly report on January 24, 2019 analyzing the final three months of 2018.

And they found that house prices are getting less affordable in many markets.

The Housing Affordability Monitor featured a representative home for each of the 10 metropolitan markets in the House Price Index, including the representative price for the condo market and for the non-condo market, and the average household income needed for each.

Here’s what they found for October, November, December of 2018:

1. Toronto Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $902,916

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $165,755

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $536,082

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $98,413

2. Montreal Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $369,234

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $67,783

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $276,889

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $50,831

3. Vancouver Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $1,318,768

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $242,096

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $638,842

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $117,277

4. Calgary Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $494,689

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $90,814

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $266,107

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $48,851

5. Edmonton Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $422,508

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $77,563

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $231,117

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $42,428

6. Ottawa-Gatineau Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $428,595

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $78,680

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $261,454

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $47,997

7. Quebec City Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $286,491

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $52,593

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $211,768

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $38,876

8. Winnipeg Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $321,259

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: 58,976

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $223,614

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $41,050

9. Hamilton Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $598,274

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $109,829

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $445,629

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $81,807

10. Victoria Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $850,469

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $156,127

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $485,937

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $89,207

In some markets, the quarterly report found that the gap between condo and non-condo affordability is shrinking. The worst deteriorations in affordability in Q4 were in Victoria, Toronto, and Vancouver. The only markets showing an improvement were Calgary and Edmonton. Countrywide, affordability worsened.

View the full 2018 Q4 report from the National Bank here: https://housepriceindex.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/NBFM-Housing-Affordability-Monitor-Q4_2018-Eng.pdf.

No matter what direction Canadian housing affordability heads, GeoWarehouse has tools that make you the property expert. Uncover real estate trends and opportunities before they hit the market.

Become a subscriber today. Call 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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As the saying goes, knowledge is power. And nowhere is that truer than the Canadian real estate market.

With the industry becoming increasingly competitive, sales professionals need resources that keep them in-the-know. In order to stand out, you need information that empowers you to make decisions.

There are two real estate resources every sales professional should use: the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index and the Teranet Market Insights Report.

Here’s what you need to know.

  1. Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

The Teranet-National Bank HPI is an independent representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.

The measurements are based on the property record of public land registries, where the sale price is available.

The Index is released every month and looks at 11 market across Canada: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal, Québec, and Halifax.

How it works:

The Index is estimated by tracking the observed or registered home prices over time. Properties with at least two sales are required in the calculations.

All properties that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index; this is known as the repeat sales methodology.

Properties that are not considered include those with:

a) non-arms-length sales,
b) change of type of property, for example after renovations,
c) data error, and
d) high turnover frequency (biannual or higher).

In the repeat sales methodology, the averaging of price appreciation from different pairs of sales is done using a complex estimation process in which each pair is a separate observation.

Why you should use it:

The HPI is particularly useful because it can give an accurate portrayal of home price shifts over time. The data is derived from the property records of public land registries — so you know it is accurate and trustworthy.

Often real estate agents look at house price figures from local MLS sales information. This isn’t necessarily a bad gauge, but it’s important to consider the Teranet HPI, too. That’s because the prices Teranet uses have been agreed to up to three months before the index is released and only finished transactions are used. If a sale falls through, the MLS data won’t always be accurate, but with the Teranet HPI you know you are looking at the final numbers.

The Teranet HPI also includes all transfer data, not just sales done through the MLS. This means there’s an estimated 20% more sales included — that could look like one in five sales being excluded from MLS reports.

Again, both should be taken into consideration, but if you are looking for accuracy and trends over time, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index is a report you won’t want to miss.

See the latest HPI: http://www.geowarehouseblog.ca/home-prices-trended-down-in-the-second-half-of-2018/.

  1. Teranet Market Insights Report

The second report you’ll want on your regular reading list is the Teranet Market Insights Report.

This release takes into account all recent trends in the Canadian real estate market — everything from house prices, to mortgage broker-lender share, to dwelling type popularity, to generational buying habits, and beyond.

Each MIR release deep dives into a different part of the housing market. For instance, the October 2018 report examined the surge in private lending, while the March 2018 report looked at the Canadian condo market.

This is a great way to stay on top of trends and patterns and then use that information in your real estate marketing.

How it works:

Analysts at Teranet watch the Canadian housing market, using data derived from provincial land registries. They synthesize that data into analysis that takes a high-level look at the current real estate market.

Why you should use it:

The Teranet MIR is one of the most comprehensive real estate reports available in the Canadian market. The data within is sourced from information you can trust. The unique position of Teranet in the real estate market means that they have a view of the industry that is difficult to parallel.

The data contained in the MIR is applicable in many ways — you can use it in your real estate marketing, business strategy, property searches, and more.

If you have any interest in following industry trends, this is the report for you.

See the latest MIR: http://www.geowarehouseblog.ca/october-2018-teranet-market-insights-report-surge-in-private-lending-in-the-gta/.

These resources can both be gamechangers, especially if your industry is feeling saturated. They can help you find new opportunities and look at the market in ways you may not have considered.

After reading the reports, you may want to put the information to use through your real estate tools — like GeoWarehouse, which uses the same information as the Teranet HPI and MIR.

You can access up-to-date property searches, comparable sales, demographic reports, and more.

Learn all about it today. Call 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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January 14, 2019

JANUARY 14, 2018

Home prices trended down in the second half of 2018

The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM for December was down 0.3% from the previous month.[1] It was the third consecutive monthly retreat. The component indexes were down for seven of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed: Edmonton (−1.4%), Vancouver (−1.2%), Winnipeg (−0.9%), Calgary (−0.6%), Victoria (−0.4%), Hamilton (−0.4%) and Quebec City (−0.4%). Indexes were up for Ottawa-Gatineau (1.0%), Montreal (0.4%), Toronto (0.2%) and Halifax (0.1%).

The recent trend of home prices is clearly downward in most metropolitan markets. For Calgary December was a sixth straight month without an index rise, a cumulative decline of 2.0%; for Vancouver a fifth straight month and a cumulative loss of 2.9%; for Edmonton a fourth straight month and a cumulative loss of 2.7%. For Victoria, Winnipeg and Hamilton it was a third straight month, with cumulative losses of 0.5%, 1.6% and 1.0% respectively. The Halifax index was down 1.6% from five months ago, Quebec City and Toronto were down −0.8% and −0.2% respectively from four months ago. Only the Ottawa-Gatineau and Montreal indexes finished 2018 in strength, rising 7.9% and 4.8% respectively from March to December and both ending the year at all-time highs.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

 

 

 

The weakness of most of the country’s large urban markets in the second half of the year meant, as table below shows, that the index was down of flat for five markets for calendar 2018Calgary (−2.6%), Edmonton (−0.9%), Winnipeg (−0.5%), Quebec City (−0.1%) and Halifax (flat). For a calendar year, it was the narrowest diffusion of 12-month gains since the recession year of 2008. Up from a year earlier despite second-half retreats were Victoria (6.0%), Hamilton (4.4%), Toronto (3.7%) and Vancouver (1.4%). As expected, Ottawa-Gatineau (5.9%) and Montreal (4.4%) were among the leaders. The 12-month advance of the composite index, at 2.5%, was the smallest since 2009.

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. From August to December, indexes were down for Brantford (−4.0%), Oshawa (−2.1%), Barrie (−2.1%), Guelph (−1.1%) and Kitchener (−0.3%). From September to December, the Peterborough index fell 5.1%. Only the St. Catharines index with its 12-month gain of 8.6% ended the year at a record.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. From August to December, indexes were down for Thunder Bay (−5.3%), Abbotsford-Mission (−1.7%) and Sudbury (−1.2%), and from September to December the index for Kelowna was down 2.0%. Three of these indexes did not display weakness in 2018, finishing the year with strong 12-month gains: Windsor (14.7%), London (10.7%) and Kingston (9.9%).

For the full report including historical data, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca.

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DECEMBER 12, 2018

Home price indexes down in November in all markets except Quebec City, Halifax and Victoria

In November the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.3% from the previous month.[1] A November decline is not the norm – this was only the fourth in 20 years of index history. It was the second consecutive monthly decline. November’s retreat was quite broad-based: component indexes were down on the month in eight of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed – Vancouver (−0.6%), Calgary (−0.6%), Edmonton (−0.6%), Winnipeg (−0.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.4%), Toronto (−0.1%), Hamilton (−0.1%) and Montreal (−0.1%). The index for Victoria was flat. Indexes were up for Halifax (0.1%) and Quebec City (1.2%). The decline of the Montreal index, the first in eight months, was hardly enough to end its upward trend over those months – a cumulative rise of 4.4%, consistent with seller’s-market conditions. Market conditions are quite different in Calgary, where the index has now declined four months in a row, for a cumulative loss of 1.4%. The index for Toronto has retreated 0.4% over the last three months.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In November the composite index was up 3.1% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in the last three months thanks to an abrupt index decline from August to October of 2017. As a result of gains earlier this year, November 12‑month rises were above the countrywide average in Victoria (5.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.3%), Montreal (4.4%), Hamilton (4.4%), Vancouver (3.9%) and Toronto (3.3%). Indexes were also up from a year earlier in Winnipeg (2.3%) and Halifax (1.7%). Indexes were down from a year earlier in Quebec City (−0.3%), Edmonton (−0.4%) and Calgary (−2.7%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In November, most of these were down or at best flat from the previous monthBrantford (−0.8%), Guelph (−0.6%), Oshawa (−0.6%), Peterborough (−0.3%), Barrie (flat) and St. Catharines (flat). The exception was Kitchener (+0.6%). Two of these indexes, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. All were up from a year earlier, the gains ranging 1.3% for Oshawa to 8.9% for Peterborough.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. In November five of them were down from the previous month: Sudbury (−1.6%), Abbotsford-Mission (−0.5%), London (−0.3%), Kelowna (−0.1%) and Thunder Bay (−0.1%). Two of them were upWindsor (+0.6%) and Kingston (+0.6%). The changes of these indexes from a year earlier ranged from −3.0% for Thunder Bay to +12.8 % for Windsor.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca.

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NOVEMBER 15, 2018

Home price index down in October in all component markets except Montreal

In October the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.4% from the previous month.[1] An October decline is not the norm – this was only the fourth in 20 years of index history. It was also the first index decline in eight months. The most striking aspect of the retreat is its diffusion. For the first time since December 2014, the component indexes for 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed were down on the month – Victoria (−0.1%), Toronto (−0.2%), Winnipeg (−0.2%), Calgary (−0.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.4%), Hamilton (−0.5%), Edmonton (−0.7%), Vancouver (−0.8%), Quebec City (−1.0%) and Halifax (−1.0%). The exception was Montreal, whose seventh consecutive monthly gain (+0.2%) was consistent with its seller’s-market conditions. For Calgary it was the 10th month without a rise in the last 13 months, hardly surprising considering the worsening of market conditions over the period. For Vancouver it was the third consecutive month without a rise.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In October the composite index was up 2.8% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in August and September because a year earlier the index fell abruptly in those two months. October 12-month rises were well above the countrywide average in Victoria (5.2%) and Vancouver (4.6%) thanks to gains earlier this year and in Montreal (5.0%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (5.0%) thanks to gains in the last six months. Indexes were also up from a year earlier in Winnipeg (3.4%), Hamilton (2.8%), Halifax (2.4%) and Toronto (1.9%). Indexes were down from a year earlier in Edmonton (−0.5%), Quebec City (−0.6%) and Calgary (−1.4%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for sevenother urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In October, all of these were down from the previous month. Two of them, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. In October. Three of these were down from the previous month. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from -0.1% in Thunder Bay to 11.4% in Windsor.

Of the 25 metropolitan-market indexes, only five did not decrease in October, the smallest diffusion of gains since December 2012.

For the full report including historical data, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca.

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October 12, 2018

OCTOBER 12, 2018

National Composite Index: Flat in September

In September the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM came in flat from the month before,1 matching the historical average for September since 2010. Only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed gains, the weakest diffusion in six months. These were Winnipeg (1.1%), Montreal (0.5%), Victoria (0.5%), Hamilton (0.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.1%). For Hamilton and Montreal, it was the sixth consecutive monthly rise, for cumulative gains of 5.8% and 4.3% respectively. For Ottawa-Gatineau it was the fifth straight rise for a cumulative gain of 7.8%. Of course, these gains incorporate usual upward price pressure from April to August. For Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau, the rising trend still persists even with correction of these seasonal effects.

The indexes for Vancouver and Edmonton came in flat on the month. For Edmonton it was a sixth straight month without a decline, for a cumulative gain of 3.4% over the period. Indexes were down on the month for Toronto (−0.1%), Calgary (−0.1%), Halifax (−0.2%) and Quebec City (−0.6%). If the Vancouver index were corrected for seasonal variation, it would have shown retreats in each of the last four months. If the Calgary index were so corrected it would have shown retreats in each of the last three months. This observation is consistent with declines in home sales reported by the real estate boards of these two markets.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In September the composite index was up 2.1% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in August because the composite index began declining in September 2017. Thanks to advances earlier this year, the 12-month rise was well above the countrywide average in Vancouver (6.2%), Victoria (5.5%) and Halifax (4.8%), while very recent advances resulted in relatively large 12-month gains in Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%) and Montréal (4.8%). Gains over a year earlier were smaller in Winnipeg (2.8%), Hamilton (1.4%) and Quebec City (0.7%). Three indexes were down from a year earlier: Edmonton (−0.5%), Toronto (−0.8%) and Calgary (−1.3%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other metropolitan areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 0.9% in Sudbury to 11.3% in Abbotsford-Mission and Windsor.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

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September 12, 2018

In August the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.2% from the previous month.[1] Removing normal seasonal patterns (seasonal adjustment), the index would have been virtually flat, following retreats in June and July. In other words, after seasonal adjustment, the downtrend of June and July did not turn around in August.

Individual market indexes were up in eight of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. Seasonally adjusted, they would have been up in only four. The published (non-seasonally-adjusted) indexes were up strongly under any respect in Ottawa-Gatineau (1.4%), Hamilton (1.4%), Montreal (1.2%) and Quebec City (0.5%). However, gains in Toronto (0.3%), Edmonton (0.2%), Victoria (0.1%) and Winnipeg (0.1%) only reflected usual seasonal pressures. After seasonal adjustment, these indexes would have dropped or be flat. Indexes were down for Halifax (−0.6%), Calgary (−0.3%) and Vancouver (−0.4%).

The published Toronto index was up for a fifth straight month. But it is the opposite after seasonal adjustment as the index would then have been down for a fifth straight month. For Vancouver and Victoria it was a third straight month of decline after seasonal adjustment.

In August the composite index was up 1.4% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since November 2009. This weakness is partly attributable to a peak in August 2017 from which the index declined in following months. For this reason the 12-month rise is likely to accelerate in the months ahead. August 2018 indexes were down from a year earlier in Toronto (−3.3%), Hamilton (−0.7%), Calgary (−0.5%) and Edmonton (−0.3%). They were up from a year earlier in Winnipeg (1.3%), Quebec City (1.4%), Halifax (4.6%), Montreal (4.8%), Victoria (5.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.2%) and Vancouver (7.6%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 1.5% for Sudbury to 14.3% for Abbotsford-Mission.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

 

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In July the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.8% from the previous month.[1] As in June, the gain might seem large but was below the historical average for the month (1.0% for July). If the index were purged from seasonal variations, the so-called “seasonally adjusted” index would have retreated in June and would have been flat in July.

As in May and June, prices were up in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, led by Ottawa-Gatineau (2.3%), Winnipeg (1.9%), Montreal (1.3%), Halifax (1.2%) and Hamilton (1.1%). For Toronto the index rise matched the countrywide average of 0.8%. The index was also up for Edmonton (0.7%), Quebec City (0.6%), Vancouver (0.4%) and Victoria (0.4%). The index for Calgary was flat.

The published (non-seasonally-adjusted) Toronto index rose for a fourth straight month in July. In contrast, the seasonally adjusted index would have declined for a fourth straight month. This means that the recent monthly rises in the published index reflected only seasonal pressures instead of an underlying trend. The retreat of the seasonally adjusted index over this period was due to non-condo housing[2] (−2.1%); the seasonally adjusted condo subindex was up 1.6%. These numbers are consistent with market conditions, tighter for condos than for other housing. The monthly rise of the Vancouver and Victoria indexes has slowed markedly since last September. Seasonally adjusted, both indexes would have been down in July for a second consecutive month. The index for Montreal stands out for its advance in 17 of the 19 months since January 2017, a showing equalled only by Vancouver.

 Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In July the composite index was up 1.8% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since July 2013 and a 13th consecutive deceleration from the record gain of 14.2% during the year ending June 2017. The main contributor to the slowdown was Toronto, the largest metropolitan market, down 4.0% from a year earlier, followed by Hamilton (−1.5%) and Calgary (−0.1%). There were small 12-month rises in Edmonton (0.3%) and Quebec City (0.6%) and rises exceeding the countrywide average in Winnipeg (2.5%), Montreal (4.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%), Halifax (5.5%), Victoria (6.8%) and Vancouver (10.6%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these (Barrie and Oshawa) were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 2.4% for Thunder Bay to 17.6% for Abbotsford-Mission.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

 

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A recent Huffington Post Canada article reported on a compelling phenomenon: “recycled” real estate listings that could be skewing Canadian housing market data.

According to the Huffington Post, a subscriber-only-access article in the Globe and Mail first revealed this trend. Real estate agents in Vancouver are “recycling” listings — i.e. pulling homes that aren’t selling off the market, and then bringing them back as “new” listings at a lower price.

In turn, these “recycled” listings could be skewing some real estate data. For instance, there are some real estate market data reports that rely on MLS listings and sales for their findings. The issue with doing this is, there can be discrepancies between the MLS data, and what is actually happening in the housing market.

For instance, MLS sold data might show that a sale has closed, but that data is taken weeks before the transfer. Something could change in those critical weeks, meaning the data would no longer be accurate.

The ‘recycled’ real estate listing trend could be skewing data the same way. It makes it seem as if houses are selling quickly, when they’re not. It also makes it appear as though houses aren’t seeing price cuts, when they are.

“Because they are recycling listings, the data consistently paint a prettier picture,” Mortgage Sandbox CEO David Stroud told the Globe.

Huffington Post also said this could have a problematic effect on homeowners, who have no way of knowing how often a home has been listed, so they might think it’s a new listing that will sell quickly. This data manipulation could be pushing people to spend more on a home than they otherwise would have.

What do you think — is this part and parcel of the real estate industry? Or is it an unethical practice that should be stopped?

Whether your opinion of the practice is positive or negative, there is still the real risk that it could be skewing reported real estate data. If you are relying on Canadian housing market trends, the information you’re looking at might be inaccurate and could lead you down the wrong path.

With GeoWarehouse, we have real estate data you can trust. Our data is driven by definite sales registered in land registries. In Ontario, for instance, it’s the Province of Ontario Land Registration Information System (POLARIS). This is the most accurate data available.

You can also access the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, which uses POLARIS data for the most accurate housing numbers. See the latest HPI report here.

Read the Huffington Post Canada article in full here.

Want access to GeoWarehouse’s real estate data? Become a subscriber. It’s easy — just give us a call at 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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