Archive for the 'House Price Index' Category

In July the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.8% from the previous month.[1] As in June, the gain might seem large but was below the historical average for the month (1.0% for July). If the index were purged from seasonal variations, the so-called “seasonally adjusted” index would have retreated in June and would have been flat in July.

As in May and June, prices were up in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, led by Ottawa-Gatineau (2.3%), Winnipeg (1.9%), Montreal (1.3%), Halifax (1.2%) and Hamilton (1.1%). For Toronto the index rise matched the countrywide average of 0.8%. The index was also up for Edmonton (0.7%), Quebec City (0.6%), Vancouver (0.4%) and Victoria (0.4%). The index for Calgary was flat.

The published (non-seasonally-adjusted) Toronto index rose for a fourth straight month in July. In contrast, the seasonally adjusted index would have declined for a fourth straight month. This means that the recent monthly rises in the published index reflected only seasonal pressures instead of an underlying trend. The retreat of the seasonally adjusted index over this period was due to non-condo housing[2] (−2.1%); the seasonally adjusted condo subindex was up 1.6%. These numbers are consistent with market conditions, tighter for condos than for other housing. The monthly rise of the Vancouver and Victoria indexes has slowed markedly since last September. Seasonally adjusted, both indexes would have been down in July for a second consecutive month. The index for Montreal stands out for its advance in 17 of the 19 months since January 2017, a showing equalled only by Vancouver.

 Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In July the composite index was up 1.8% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since July 2013 and a 13th consecutive deceleration from the record gain of 14.2% during the year ending June 2017. The main contributor to the slowdown was Toronto, the largest metropolitan market, down 4.0% from a year earlier, followed by Hamilton (−1.5%) and Calgary (−0.1%). There were small 12-month rises in Edmonton (0.3%) and Quebec City (0.6%) and rises exceeding the countrywide average in Winnipeg (2.5%), Montreal (4.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%), Halifax (5.5%), Victoria (6.8%) and Vancouver (10.6%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these (Barrie and Oshawa) were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 2.4% for Thunder Bay to 17.6% for Abbotsford-Mission.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

 

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A recent Huffington Post Canada article reported on a compelling phenomenon: “recycled” real estate listings that could be skewing Canadian housing market data.

According to the Huffington Post, a subscriber-only-access article in the Globe and Mail first revealed this trend. Real estate agents in Vancouver are “recycling” listings — i.e. pulling homes that aren’t selling off the market, and then bringing them back as “new” listings at a lower price.

In turn, these “recycled” listings could be skewing some real estate data. For instance, there are some real estate market data reports that rely on MLS listings and sales for their findings. The issue with doing this is, there can be discrepancies between the MLS data, and what is actually happening in the housing market.

For instance, MLS sold data might show that a sale has closed, but that data is taken weeks before the transfer. Something could change in those critical weeks, meaning the data would no longer be accurate.

The ‘recycled’ real estate listing trend could be skewing data the same way. It makes it seem as if houses are selling quickly, when they’re not. It also makes it appear as though houses aren’t seeing price cuts, when they are.

“Because they are recycling listings, the data consistently paint a prettier picture,” Mortgage Sandbox CEO David Stroud told the Globe.

Huffington Post also said this could have a problematic effect on homeowners, who have no way of knowing how often a home has been listed, so they might think it’s a new listing that will sell quickly. This data manipulation could be pushing people to spend more on a home than they otherwise would have.

What do you think — is this part and parcel of the real estate industry? Or is it an unethical practice that should be stopped?

Whether your opinion of the practice is positive or negative, there is still the real risk that it could be skewing reported real estate data. If you are relying on Canadian housing market trends, the information you’re looking at might be inaccurate and could lead you down the wrong path.

With GeoWarehouse, we have real estate data you can trust. Our data is driven by definite sales registered in land registries. In Ontario, for instance, it’s the Province of Ontario Land Registration Information System (POLARIS). This is the most accurate data available.

You can also access the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, which uses POLARIS data for the most accurate housing numbers. See the latest HPI report here.

Read the Huffington Post Canada article in full here.

Want access to GeoWarehouse’s real estate data? Become a subscriber. It’s easy — just give us a call at 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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July 11 and July 12, 2018 were busy days for the Canadian real estate market.

On July 11, 2018 news broke of a Bank of Canada interest rate increase to 1.5% — the highest interest rates have been since December of 2008.

Then, on July 12, 2018, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index came out showing that house prices are making up lost ground in the second half of 2017.

While unrelated, both announcements share a commonality: they indicate what could be on the horizon for the Canadian housing market.

In its July 11 announcement, the Bank of Canada (BOC) referenced Canadian housing trends.

The BOC stated that household spending is being dampened by higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending guidelines. It referenced recent data suggesting housing markets are beginning to stabilize following a weak start to 2018.

The following day, the House Price Index released, showing the same stabilization. The composite index in June 2018 was up 0.9% from May 2018, indicating that some of the ground lost in the second half of 2017 is being recovered.

However, even though the numbers are showing recovery, the index increase is still weak for this time of the year. According to the June 2018 report, written by National Bank of Canada senior economist Marc Pinsonneault, if the Index were purged from seasonal patterns, it would have been flat over the past three months.

Different types of dwellings are also affecting the Index. For instance, condo prices have risen rapidly in Toronto and Vancouver since the beginning of 2018 (after seasonal adjustment, up 7.8% and 16.3% annualized respectively).

Prices for other types of dwellings have held their ground, which could be reassuring in the wake of higher interest rates and stricter mortgage rules, such as the B20 lending guidelines.

In summary, the good news is that:

  • Canadian household debt levels are going down. This is also good for lenders who are stress testing mortgages and looking at other components, such as the Gross Debt Service Ratio (GDS) – the amount of total housing-related debt a person carries – and the Total Debt Service Ratio (TDS) – amount of total debt a person carries.
  • Even as interest rates rise, and mortgage regulations become stricter, house prices for more traditional dwelling types are holding steady.
  • Condo prices are still on the rise, indicating that they continue to be a popular and affordable.
  • While not at a record high, the House Price Index has shown stabilization. Only time will tell if this trend continues, but many economists are predicting it will.

The next BOC rate announcement is set for September 5, 2018. It is appears unlikely, however not impossible, for there to be another increase at that. The Royal Bank of Canada predicted in July of 2018 that the BOC will continue to raise interest rates to 2.25% by the first half of 2019, but growing household income will provide some offset.

GeoWarehouse’s tools can help you continue to assess property information in a changing real estate market. A neighbourhood search can tell you the property values of a certain area. You can also find condo buildings, demographics, property information, and more.

Even as uncertainty remains, our real estate technology will help you stay agile and provide your clients with their best options.

Learn more today about how we can help. Visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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In June the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.9% from May. Though large at first glance, the increase was the third-smallest for June in the last 14 years. If we ignore the seasonal component of monthly variations, we cannot speak of a soaring index. The latest run of monthly increases is merely a recovery of ground lost in the second half of last year. The composite index is now barely above its previous peak of August 2017.

As in May, prices were up in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, led by Ottawa-Gatineau (2.0%), Hamilton (1.8%), Edmonton (1.5%), Victoria (1.3%), Toronto (1.2%) and Halifax (1.0%). The Toronto rise was the smallest since 2008 for a month of June. The Quebec City index rose apace with the countrywide average of 0.9%. Gains were smaller in Montreal (0.7%), Vancouver (0.6%) and Calgary (0.6%), and the index for Winnipeg was down 1.0% on the month. The rise in Vancouver was the fourth-smallest since 2001 for a month of June.

Over the first half of the year the Toronto index rose at an annual rate of 5.7%. For the condo segment the rate was 12.1%, for other housing only 2.9%, reflecting a tight seller’s market for condos. The Vancouver story is similar: condo segment up 17.6% annualized since last September, other dwelling types up 4.9%.

Five of the 11 markets reached a new high in June: Vancouver, Victoria, Montreal, Halifax and Ottawa-Gatineau. The market furthest from its previous peak was Toronto, down 4.8% from its reading of last July.

 Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In June the composite index was up 2.9% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since October 2013 and a 12th consecutive deceleration from the record 12-month gain of 14.2% last June. The January 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (13.3%), Victoria (9.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (4.7%), Montreal (3.6%) and Halifax (3.2%). The 12-month gain was slim in Winnipeg (1.3%), Quebec City (0.7%), Calgary (0.3%) and Edmonton (0.2%). Indexes were down from a year earlier for Hamilton (−0.4%) and Toronto (−2.8%).

In addition to the Toronto and Hamilton indexes, included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In June, three of these seven (Barrie, Kitchener and Oshawa) were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their various peaks of July, August or September 2017. The other four (Guelph, Brantford, St. Catharines and Peterborough) reached new peaks. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The indexes for these last two, Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna were, like those for Vancouver and Victoria, at new peaks in June. The same was true of the indexes for Thunder Bay, Windsor, London and Kingston in Ontario.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

 

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June 13, 2018

In May the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  was up 1.0% from the previous month. This confirms the index stabilization following the downward trend that prevailed over the second half of 2017. The last monthly gain is one tick less than the May average of 1.1% over the 20 years of index history. The monthly advance was led by the metropolitan markets of Victoria (1.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.7%), Toronto (1.3%), Winnipeg (1.3%) and Vancouver (1.0%). The rise of the Toronto index matched its historical average for May. The rise of the Ottawa-Gatineau index was not enough to make up its cumulative decline over the previous four months. There were smaller monthly advances in the indexes for Edmonton (0.7%), Quebec City (0.6%), Hamilton (0.4%), Calgary (0.4%) and Montreal (0.3%). The index for Halifax was flat.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Because of a rapid advance from May to August last year, the composite index was nevertheless up 4.5% from a year earlier. It was the smallest 12-month rise since June 2015 and an 11thconsecutive deceleration from last June’s record 12-month gain of 14.2%. The increase was led by Vancouver (15.4%) and Victoria (10.3%), the only two markets whose gains exceeded the countrywide average. The 12-month rise was 3.9% in Ottawa-Gatineau, 3.9% in Halifax, 3.6% in Montreal, 2.1% in Winnipeg, 1.9% in Quebec City, 1.8%

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

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House prices stayed flat in March of 2018, according to data from the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™.

This past month was the first time outside of a recession that the March composite index wasn’t up at least 0.2 percentage points from February and the first time outside of a recession when March indexes were only up for four of the 11 metropolitan markets.

The Toronto region was flat, and six other markets were down for the month.

Vancouver’s house price index increased — its 13th month-over-month increase in the past 15 months, taking prices to a new high. In comparison, the Toronto market was flat in March and over the past 15 months has gone down 7.3 per cent from its house price peak in July of 2017. In Toronto, however, its condo segment has remained unchanged since July.

The increase in Vancouver was the main reason the house price index stayed flat in March and didn’t decline overall.

“Without Vancouver, the composite index would have declined in March, and in five of the six preceding months,” National Bank economist Marc Pinsonneault said in a research note.

Vancouver’s index is expected to see more increases over the coming months. The average Vancouver region sale price was a record $906,896 in March.

Outside of Vancouver and Toronto, other markets continue to vary. Winnipeg, Quebec City, and Victoria all showed increases in March, but Montreal, Hamilton, Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau, Halifax, and Edmonton were all down. In Ontario, Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa, and Sudbury all showed declines from last July.

Hamilton has particularly declined, dropping 5.9% cumulatively since August of 2017.

The March 2018 house price index was notable for two other reasons: it’s the smallest 12-month rise since May of 2016, and it’s the ninth consecutive deceleration from the record 14.2% of last June.

According to Pinsonneault, the flat reading in March reflects that both the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets have begun to flatten out.

“The decline was the most obvious in Toronto,” he wrote. “This drop was likely triggered by Ontario’s implementation of the 15 per cent [foreign buyer tax] followed by stricter rules for qualification for a mortgage and a rise in mortgage rates.”

Pinsonneault wrote that we could see national home prices remaining relatively even in the coming months.

A TD Bank commentary on the March house price index noted that mortgage rates have recently fallen, making the overall cost of ownership less expensive for buyers.

TD Economics analyst, Sonny Scarfone, provided further analysis to the Canadian Press.

“Markets experiencing a decline in home prices are facing a rising inventory of homes for sale on the market, following what appears to have been a number of years of over building,” Scarfone wrote.

“Meanwhile, home price pressures remain the strongest in cities facing tighter conditions — as a low number of homes for sale on the market has put the bargaining power in the hands of the seller. This is particularly true in Calgary and the single-family home market in Toronto. However, these cities also have a record number of new homes currently under construction, which should help alleviate some supply pressures in the coming months.”

See the full March 2018 House Price Index report at https://housepriceindex.ca/#maps=c11.

GeoWarehouse’s tools help your real estate business adapt to changing house prices. Identify property value, source new real estate leads, learn comparable sales, and more with our features. Find out about our services at www.geowarehouse.ca.

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The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™  was unchanged in March – the first time outside a recession when the March composite index was not up at least 0.2 percentage points from February and the first time outside a recession when March indexes were up for only four of the 11 metropolitan markets of the composite index – Victoria (1.0%), Vancouver (0.5%), Winnipeg (0.5%) and Quebec City (0.1%). The index for Toronto was flat. Indexes for the other six markets were all down on the month: Montreal −0.2%, Hamilton −0.3%, Calgary −0.4%, Ottawa-Gatineau −0.7%, Halifax −1.0%, Edmonton −1.3%.

The rise of the Vancouver index was the 13th in 15 months, taking it to a new high. In recent months its gains have been smaller, consistent with the relaxation of the market reported by the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board. The Toronto index is down 7.3% from its peak of last July. The raw (unsmoothed) Toronto index* has declined a similar 7.9% over that period, though its condo segment is unchanged from July – all other types of housing taken together are down 10.4%. The index for neighbouring Hamilton has declined in six of the last seven months, for a cumulative 5.9% drop from its August peak. The Ottawa-Gatineau index has declined in five of the last six months and is down 2.4% from its September peak. The Calgary and Edmonton indexes are also down from six months ago.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Because of the rise of the composite index from March to August last year, its reading for March 2018 was up 6.6% from a year earlier. This is the smallest 12-month rise since May 2016 and a ninth consecutive deceleration from the record 14.2% of last June. The March 12-month rise of the composite index was exceeded only by the indexes for Vancouver (15.4%) and Victoria (12.5%), which were followed by Halifax (6.1%), Hamilton (5.9%), Toronto (4.3%), Montreal (4.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (3.0%), Winnipeg (2.9%), Calgary (0.4%) and Edmonton (0.2%). The Quebec City index was down 0.4% from a year earlier.

Indexes exist for seven Golden Horseshoe markets outside Toronto and Hamilton. Six of them – Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines and Oshawa – were down from last July, the exception being Peterborough. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario. Of the total of 14, 13 were up from a year earlier, with rises ranging from 4.4% in Barrie, Ont., to 25.3% in Abbotsford-Mission, B.C.  The index for Sudbury was down 3.1% from a year earlier.

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: housepriceindex.ca

 

*Note on methodology: The current-month data used to calculate the index are those of closed sales registered in the provincial land registry. To illustrate the home price trend, the published indexes of the 11 metropolitan markets entering into the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index™ are moving averages of the last three months of raw indexes. This procedure evens out month-to-month fluctuations. More granular monthly data are available upon request, possibly subject to subscription fees. For further information about the methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca

Copyright 2018 Teranet Inc. and National Bank of Canada

Teranet is located at 123 Front Street West, Suite 700.  Toronto ON.  M5J 2M2. 1.855.787.8439
National Bank is located at 1155 Metcalfe, 5th floor, Montreal PQ H3B 4S9. 1.800.361.8838

 

 

 

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In February the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM retreated 0.1% from the previous month, following December and January rises that had interrupted a downtrend. It was the first February decline since 2013. The index was up in only three of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, the fewest since October 2014: Vancouver (+0.4%), Hamilton (+0.2%) and Halifax (+0.8%). The index for Victoria was flat on the month and the other seven component indexes were down: Toronto −0.1%, Montreal −0.3%, Ottawa-Gatineau −0.7%, Edmonton −0.8%, Calgary −0.8%, Winnipeg −1.0%, Quebec City −1.5%.

For Vancouver it was the 12th rise in 14 months, taking its index to a new record. However, this market’s raw (unsmoothed) index was down 1.3% on the month, a retreat coinciding with a cooling of home sales as reported by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. The raw index for Toronto declined after three consecutive rises. In previous months, observers had noted a certain haste on the part of buyers to beat the entry into effect of tougher conditions for obtaining an uninsured mortgage. The advance of the Hamilton index interrupted a run of five declines. The retreat of the Montreal index was the first in 14 months. This is not a concern since the Greater Montréal Real Estate Board reported the strongest sales in six years for the first two months of a year.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

The composite index in February was up 7.5% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since March 2016 and an eighth consecutive deceleration from last June’s record 12-month gain of 14.2%. The February 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (15.8%), Victoria (12.4%) and Hamilton (8.4%). It was below the countrywide average but still respectable in Toronto (6.2%), Halifax (5.3%), Montreal (5.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (3.7%) and Winnipeg (3.0%). For Calgary it was a minimal 0.6%. There were declines from a year earlier in the indexes for Edmonton (−0.3%) and Quebec City (−2.3%).

Of the 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes for seven were down from the previous month. Indexes for all 14 were up from a year earlier, with rises ranging from 1.2% in Sudbury, Ontario, to 23.9% in Abbotsford-Mission, B.C.

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: https://housepriceindex.ca

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February 14, 2018

Toronto index stopped trending down in January

In January the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  rose 0.3% from the previous month, a tic higher than the historical average for January and a second consecutive monthly increase. However, only four of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed gains – the first time since January 2016 that a rise in the Composite Index has had so little breadth. It was due mainly to a second straight monthly jump of the index for the important Vancouver market (1.2% in January on the heels of 1.3% in December). The Toronto index rose 0.2%, the Victoria index 1.0% and the Montreal index edged up 0.1%. All the other component indexes were down on the month: Hamilton (−0.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (‑0.2%), Edmonton (−0.3%), Calgary (−0.3%), Halifax (-1.0%), Winnipeg (−1.1%) and Quebec City (−2.0%).  For Montreal, it was a 13th monthly increase, and for Hamilton it was a fifth decrease in a row.

The rise of the Toronto index was the first in six months. The raw (unsmoothed) Toronto index [1]on which it is based was up for a third consecutive month. The firming of the smoothed index is due entirely to condo dwellings. The smoothed index for non-condo units fell in January for a sixth straight month, bringing its cumulative decline to 9.6%.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

For Vancouver, January was a ninth consecutive month without a decline. The cumulative rise over that period was 14.5% – 18.2% for condo units and 11.4% for all other housing. Vancouver and Montreal were the only markets surveyed whose index reached an all-time high in January.

In January the composite index was up 8.7% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since May 2016 and a seventh consecutive deceleration from the record 12-month gains of 14.2% last June. The January 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (16.9%), Victoria (12.3%) and Hamilton (9.8%). Toronto’s rise of 8.4% from a year earlier was slightly below the countrywide average. The 12-month advance was below the countrywide average but still respectable for Ottawa-Gatineau (5.6%), Montreal (5.4%), Winnipeg (3.6%) and Halifax (2.5%). It was minimal for Calgary (0.1%) and zero for Edmonton. The Quebec City index was down 1.2% from a year earlier.

Indexes were up from a year earlier for all of 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, though the rise ranged widely from 2.8% in Sudbury (Ontario) to 21.4% in Abbotsford-Mission (B.C.).

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: www.housepriceindex.ca

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In December the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  edged up 0.2% from the previous month, interrupting a three-month run of declines. However, only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed index increases. The one-tick rise of the composite index was due to a 1.3% jump of the index for the large Vancouver market. The other indexes showing gains were Winnipeg (1.9%), Halifax (1.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (0.4%) and Edmonton (0.1%); without Vancouver their combined gain would not have offset the combined decline of the indexes for Toronto (−0.3%), Victoria (−1.0%), Calgary (−0.6%), Hamilton (−0.5%) and Montreal (−0.2%). The index for Quebec City was flat.

For the Toronto index it was a fifth consecutive decline. However, the raw index* for Toronto rose 0.2% in November and 0.1% in December. If it edges up again or stays flat in January, the sequence of monthly declines of the smoothed index would then be interrupted. The upticks of Toronto’s raw index in the last two months of 2017 can be laid to the desire of some buyers to acquire housing before January 1, when a new and stiffer eligibility rule comes into effect on qualification for an uninsured mortgage.

  Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

For the Vancouver index it was an eighth consecutive month without a decline, a period over which it rose 13.2%. That breaks down as 16.7% for condos and 10.2% for other housing. Vancouver, Winnipeg and Halifax were the only indexes to reach a new record in December.

In December the composite index was up 9.1% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month gain since May 2016 and the fifth straight deceleration from record 14.2% gains in June and July. The December 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (16.0%), Victoria (11.5%), Hamilton (11.3%) and Toronto (9.0%). Montreal’s 12-month gain was 7.0%, less than the countrywide average but noteworthy. The 12-month advance was well above the rate of inflation in Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%), Winnipeg (4.0%) and Halifax (3.6%). It was much smaller in Calgary (0.5%), Quebec City (0.4%) and Edmonton (0.2%).

Among 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes for Sudbury, Guelph and St. Catharines–Niagara were down for a third consecutive month, the index for Oshawa for a fifth. All 14 markets were nevertheless up from a year earlier, though the 12-month increase ranged widely, from 3.8% in Thunder Bay to 19.0% in London.

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: www.housepriceindex.ca

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