Archive for the 'Housing Market' Category

In July the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.8% from the previous month.[1] As in June, the gain might seem large but was below the historical average for the month (1.0% for July). If the index were purged from seasonal variations, the so-called “seasonally adjusted” index would have retreated in June and would have been flat in July.

As in May and June, prices were up in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, led by Ottawa-Gatineau (2.3%), Winnipeg (1.9%), Montreal (1.3%), Halifax (1.2%) and Hamilton (1.1%). For Toronto the index rise matched the countrywide average of 0.8%. The index was also up for Edmonton (0.7%), Quebec City (0.6%), Vancouver (0.4%) and Victoria (0.4%). The index for Calgary was flat.

The published (non-seasonally-adjusted) Toronto index rose for a fourth straight month in July. In contrast, the seasonally adjusted index would have declined for a fourth straight month. This means that the recent monthly rises in the published index reflected only seasonal pressures instead of an underlying trend. The retreat of the seasonally adjusted index over this period was due to non-condo housing[2] (−2.1%); the seasonally adjusted condo subindex was up 1.6%. These numbers are consistent with market conditions, tighter for condos than for other housing. The monthly rise of the Vancouver and Victoria indexes has slowed markedly since last September. Seasonally adjusted, both indexes would have been down in July for a second consecutive month. The index for Montreal stands out for its advance in 17 of the 19 months since January 2017, a showing equalled only by Vancouver.

 Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In July the composite index was up 1.8% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since July 2013 and a 13th consecutive deceleration from the record gain of 14.2% during the year ending June 2017. The main contributor to the slowdown was Toronto, the largest metropolitan market, down 4.0% from a year earlier, followed by Hamilton (−1.5%) and Calgary (−0.1%). There were small 12-month rises in Edmonton (0.3%) and Quebec City (0.6%) and rises exceeding the countrywide average in Winnipeg (2.5%), Montreal (4.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%), Halifax (5.5%), Victoria (6.8%) and Vancouver (10.6%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these (Barrie and Oshawa) were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 2.4% for Thunder Bay to 17.6% for Abbotsford-Mission.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

 

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A recent Huffington Post Canada article reported on a compelling phenomenon: “recycled” real estate listings that could be skewing Canadian housing market data.

According to the Huffington Post, a subscriber-only-access article in the Globe and Mail first revealed this trend. Real estate agents in Vancouver are “recycling” listings — i.e. pulling homes that aren’t selling off the market, and then bringing them back as “new” listings at a lower price.

In turn, these “recycled” listings could be skewing some real estate data. For instance, there are some real estate market data reports that rely on MLS listings and sales for their findings. The issue with doing this is, there can be discrepancies between the MLS data, and what is actually happening in the housing market.

For instance, MLS sold data might show that a sale has closed, but that data is taken weeks before the transfer. Something could change in those critical weeks, meaning the data would no longer be accurate.

The ‘recycled’ real estate listing trend could be skewing data the same way. It makes it seem as if houses are selling quickly, when they’re not. It also makes it appear as though houses aren’t seeing price cuts, when they are.

“Because they are recycling listings, the data consistently paint a prettier picture,” Mortgage Sandbox CEO David Stroud told the Globe.

Huffington Post also said this could have a problematic effect on homeowners, who have no way of knowing how often a home has been listed, so they might think it’s a new listing that will sell quickly. This data manipulation could be pushing people to spend more on a home than they otherwise would have.

What do you think — is this part and parcel of the real estate industry? Or is it an unethical practice that should be stopped?

Whether your opinion of the practice is positive or negative, there is still the real risk that it could be skewing reported real estate data. If you are relying on Canadian housing market trends, the information you’re looking at might be inaccurate and could lead you down the wrong path.

With GeoWarehouse, we have real estate data you can trust. Our data is driven by definite sales registered in land registries. In Ontario, for instance, it’s the Province of Ontario Land Registration Information System (POLARIS). This is the most accurate data available.

You can also access the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, which uses POLARIS data for the most accurate housing numbers. See the latest HPI report here.

Read the Huffington Post Canada article in full here.

Want access to GeoWarehouse’s real estate data? Become a subscriber. It’s easy — just give us a call at 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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In February the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM retreated 0.1% from the previous month, following December and January rises that had interrupted a downtrend. It was the first February decline since 2013. The index was up in only three of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, the fewest since October 2014: Vancouver (+0.4%), Hamilton (+0.2%) and Halifax (+0.8%). The index for Victoria was flat on the month and the other seven component indexes were down: Toronto −0.1%, Montreal −0.3%, Ottawa-Gatineau −0.7%, Edmonton −0.8%, Calgary −0.8%, Winnipeg −1.0%, Quebec City −1.5%.

For Vancouver it was the 12th rise in 14 months, taking its index to a new record. However, this market’s raw (unsmoothed) index was down 1.3% on the month, a retreat coinciding with a cooling of home sales as reported by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. The raw index for Toronto declined after three consecutive rises. In previous months, observers had noted a certain haste on the part of buyers to beat the entry into effect of tougher conditions for obtaining an uninsured mortgage. The advance of the Hamilton index interrupted a run of five declines. The retreat of the Montreal index was the first in 14 months. This is not a concern since the Greater Montréal Real Estate Board reported the strongest sales in six years for the first two months of a year.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

The composite index in February was up 7.5% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since March 2016 and an eighth consecutive deceleration from last June’s record 12-month gain of 14.2%. The February 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (15.8%), Victoria (12.4%) and Hamilton (8.4%). It was below the countrywide average but still respectable in Toronto (6.2%), Halifax (5.3%), Montreal (5.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (3.7%) and Winnipeg (3.0%). For Calgary it was a minimal 0.6%. There were declines from a year earlier in the indexes for Edmonton (−0.3%) and Quebec City (−2.3%).

Of the 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes for seven were down from the previous month. Indexes for all 14 were up from a year earlier, with rises ranging from 1.2% in Sudbury, Ontario, to 23.9% in Abbotsford-Mission, B.C.

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: https://housepriceindex.ca

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October 10, 2017

The average house price in Canada in 2017 has taken an interesting journey over the course of the year. Over the past several years of unchanging, low interest rates, skyrocketing average home prices by city, and new government real estate regulations, it’s almost impossible to find anyone who agrees on what may happen next now that rates have finally risen and regulations have had time to take effect.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ derives its data directly from property records of public land registries – the most accurate source for land data. It covers 11 major Canadian cities – Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal, Québec and Halifax.

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independent representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices. The estimate the Index provides is based on tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries.

This data comes directly following the first Bank of Canada decision to significantly raise rates for the first time in nearly seven years. Years of low borrowing costs is seen by many to be the reason for Canada’s ongoing housing boom. What will the impacts of September’s interest rate increase be?

While there is some evidence showing sales may have dropped since then, as the HPI August report points to prices experiencing a dip, experts are not unified in their predictions. How have all the recent changes and the rate increase impacted housing prices in your recent transactions? Join the conversation @GeoWarehouse.

The average house price in Canada is reflected in the historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™, available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

SOURCE

https://betterdwelling.com/heres-how-real-estate-prices-across-canada-stack-up/#_

 

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August 26, 2015

geoPreventing real estate fraud is a major challenge that most real estate sales professionals, and even lenders for that matter, encounter. Real estate fraud presents itself in many forms – some more common than others.

Title fraud: Though this doesn’t happen often, it is a costly form of fraud that one hopes they are protected against with their title insurance. As a real estate sales professional, do you want to be associated with the origination where title fraud is present on a deal? Absolutely not. The best ways to combat title fraud are to meet the borrowers, request identification, independently verify who is on title to the home and ask them questions about the home, sales history, even things in the area that may help you identify if something seems a bit off!

Value fraud: in a recent publication, the Law Society of BC had an excellent example of this type of fraud that we thought it would be prudent to share.

“Value fraud in this situation, back-to-back purchases of the same property are arranged from a legitimate vendor. The first purchase is for the arranged sale price — say $300,000. Then a subsequent (fraudulent) deal (from one fraudster to another) is arranged (i.e., a “flip”) for $400,000. Both purchases are set to close on the same day. The fraudster arranges for a high-ratio mortgage on the basis of the second deal. The high-ratio mortgage funds are used to close the real estate deals, since the amount of the mortgage (95% of $400,000 = $380,000) is enough to cover the deals. The fraudsters are counting on the financial institutions not doing their full due diligence or having an on-site appraisal done of the property to verify the stated property value. Sooner or later, the balance of the mortgage funds and the fraudster disappear, leaving the bank holding a mortgage for far more than the property is worth.”

“A second value fraud occurs when a legitimate agreement of purchase and sale is entered into between a vendor and the fraudster, say for $350,000. The vendor and the fraudster then sign a one-page amendment that provides a credit of $50,000 against the purchase price (stated to be for repairs). The fraudster does not disclose this credit in obtaining high-ratio financing. The deal closes and the mortgage payments stop shortly thereafter. The fraudster disappears with the balance of the financing leaving the bank with a mortgage greater than the value of the property.”

Check out the full article here: https://www.lawsociety.bc.ca/page.cfm?cid=1347&t=Practice-Tips:-Fighting-back-against-fraud-%E2%80%94-the-risks-in-real-estate.

Here are some red flags that can help you to suss out a real estate fraudster:

  • A client is making a large property purchase with cash and cannot evidence this from the sale of another property.
  • The client has documents to confirm the property transfer but not the original purchase and sale agreement.
  • The property’s sales history is showing multiple recent purchases – each showing the value increasing.
  • The client doesn’t want to provide identification, or will, but doesn’t want you to make a copy of it.
  • The seller indicates that there was a deposit made that was not recorded on the purchase and sale agreement – with payment being made directly to the seller and not through you.
  • The client wants the transaction closed very quickly.
  • The client wants you to indicate a higher purchase price on the agreement than the actual purchase price.
  • The sale price is unreasonably greater than that of other homes in the area.
  • The title shows a history of mortgages being registered and then discharged in short time spans.

Above is just a short list of behaviours that can occur that can mean fraud. Your ears might be ringing but here come the words again: due diligence saves the day, most of the time. Think of water, forcefully flowing from the tap as your deals, now think of the spatter that escapes the stream as representing these instances when something on a deal is off. Maybe in these cases it is better to dig a little deeper and perhaps pass on a deal rather than getting caught in the middle of a fraud scheme that can not only get you in trouble, but also put your relationships with your partners at risk.

For more information about tools you can use to identify real estate fraud please visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

 

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Mortgage Rates IncreaseAs Canada’s housing market continues to thrive, it appears that CMHC has taken yet another step to cool things down. This week, the Financial Post reported on the changes that CMHC announced which will restrict the amount of new guarantees it offers to banks and other lenders on mortgage backed securities.

CMHC advised the financial community of the restrictions this month. In the Financial Post article, Doug Porter, chief economist with the Bank of Montreal, surmised that perhaps the sales prices in the past month led CMHC to take an additional step to further cool the housing market.

According to National Bank financial analyst Peter Routledge, this change may lead to mortgage rates charged by the major banks increasing from between .15% to .45%.

Our question to you is: if the major banks raise their rates, what impact do you think this will have on the real estate market in Canada?

You can read the full article here at http://business.financialpost.com/2013/08/06/cmhc-restricts-levels-of-new-guarantees-for-banks-and-mortgage-lenders/.

If you would like more information about GeoWarehouse please visit www.geowarehouse.ca or call 1-866-237-5937.

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