Archive for the 'Housing Market' Category

Real estate professionals, the Teranet Market Insights Forum on February 12, 2019 is almost full. Don’t miss your chance to attend and receive exclusive insights into the Canadian housing market.

Details:
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
8:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m.
MaRS Discovery District
101 College Street, Toronto, Ontario

Speakers

Stéfane Marion
Chief Economist and Strategist at National Bank

Stéfane Marion is Chief Economist and Strategist for National Bank of Canada and National Bank Financial, a position he has held since November 2008. Mr. Marion is a sought-after speaker on economic trends and their financial implications and is ranked among the leading economists in Canada, according to Brendan Wood International.

National Bank Financial’s Economics and Strategy team is regularly ranked among the top Canadian forecasters and has won recognition for the accuracy of its projections.

In 2012, the C.D. Howe Institute appointed Mr. Marion to its Monetary Policy Council and to the newly established Business Cycle Council. He also sits on the National Bank Pension Committee.

Mr. Marion joined NBF’s Economic Group in 1999. Previously Mr. Marion worked for several years in the federal departments of Finance and Industry in Ottawa, where, in addition to economic analysis and forecasting, he also worked on microeconomic policy impact studies. In particular, he participated in the development of forecasting models and the analysis of the FTA and NAFTA free-trade agreements with the United States and Mexico.

Mr. Marion holds a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree in economics from the Université de Montréal.

Roger Vandomme
Chief Data Scientist at SMC

Roger’s career has been built on the fundamentals of data analysis, predictive modeling and related decision-making. With 20 years in the credit bureau industry, creating credit scores all around the world, Roger has an outstanding unmatched skill-set in the field of predictive modeling. He has completed numerous studies and research on decision heuristics and biases, developing reasoning methods and processes around systemic design and game theory.

Roger created and manages a decision science boutique, SMC, that helps companies and institutions to optimize their strategic decision-making process through the application of mathematical models, machine learning, and artificial intelligence.

Roger teaches business analytics and machine learning at University of Toronto, as well as operational planning at the Canadian Forces College.

Roger holds a master’s degree in applied mathematics from Paris University, an MBA from Queen’s University, and a Master in Defense Studies with the Royal Military College.

Mark Huttram
Director of Business Development and Marketing at Teranet

Mr. Huttram will reveal exclusive market insights and updates from Teranet.

Don’t miss this opportunity. Register for the February 12, 2019 Market Insights Forum here: http://ci23.actonsoftware.com/acton/media/2216/teranets-market-insight-forum

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In the final quarter of 2018, Canadian housing affordability worsened for a 14th consecutive quarter, found economic research from the National Bank Housing Affordability Monitor.

Using data from the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, National Bank Deputy Chief Economist Matthieu Arseneau and Economist Kyle Dahms released a quarterly report on January 24, 2019 analyzing the final three months of 2018.

And they found that house prices are getting less affordable in many markets.

The Housing Affordability Monitor featured a representative home for each of the 10 metropolitan markets in the House Price Index, including the representative price for the condo market and for the non-condo market, and the average household income needed for each.

Here’s what they found for October, November, December of 2018:

1. Toronto Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $902,916

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $165,755

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $536,082

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $98,413

2. Montreal Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $369,234

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $67,783

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $276,889

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $50,831

3. Vancouver Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $1,318,768

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $242,096

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $638,842

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $117,277

4. Calgary Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $494,689

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $90,814

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $266,107

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $48,851

5. Edmonton Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $422,508

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $77,563

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $231,117

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $42,428

6. Ottawa-Gatineau Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $428,595

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $78,680

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $261,454

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $47,997

7. Quebec City Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $286,491

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $52,593

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $211,768

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $38,876

8. Winnipeg Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $321,259

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: 58,976

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $223,614

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $41,050

9. Hamilton Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $598,274

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $109,829

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $445,629

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $81,807

10. Victoria Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $850,469

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $156,127

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $485,937

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $89,207

In some markets, the quarterly report found that the gap between condo and non-condo affordability is shrinking. The worst deteriorations in affordability in Q4 were in Victoria, Toronto, and Vancouver. The only markets showing an improvement were Calgary and Edmonton. Countrywide, affordability worsened.

View the full 2018 Q4 report from the National Bank here: https://housepriceindex.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/NBFM-Housing-Affordability-Monitor-Q4_2018-Eng.pdf.

No matter what direction Canadian housing affordability heads, GeoWarehouse has tools that make you the property expert. Uncover real estate trends and opportunities before they hit the market.

Become a subscriber today. Call 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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Attention leaders in the financial and real estate industries – this is an event you will not want to miss. On February 12, 2019, Teranet is hosting our first Market Insights Forum of the year and the lineup is excellent!

Being that the housing market and real estate economy is on the top of everyone’s minds, we thought what better topic to cover and have invited amongst others, Stéfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist at the National Bank to speak on the subject.

Also on the agenda is Roger Vandomme, Chief Data Scientist at SMC. Predictive analytics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence can all help with strategic decision making – especially in an uncertain market. Mr. Vandomme is an expert on how to put raw data to good use for your real estate business.

You can view full event details here: http://ci23.actonsoftware.com/acton/media/2216/teranets-market-insight-forum

The event is almost full so if you plan to register please do so as soon as possible.

The February 12, 2019 Teranet Market Insights Forum runs from 8:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. at the MaRS Discover District, 101 College Street, Toronto, Ontario.

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On February 12, 2019 Teranet is hosting another insightful Market Insights Forum.

While in the past this has been an invite-only event, we have decided to open up the February 2019 Market Insights Forum to senior leadership within all major financial institutions, real estate companies, associations, and partner organizations (as capacity permits).

One of the keynote speakers is Stéfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist at the National Bank. He will provide a look back at what happened in 2018 and a discussion on how the changing economic and regulatory conditions could impact Canada’s housing market in 2019.

Joining Mr. Marion on the speakers’ list are Roger Vandomme and Mark Huttram.

Mr. Vandomme is the Chief Data Scientist at SMC and an instructor at the University of Toronto. He is speaking about artificial intelligence and what it has to do with human decision making. In his presentation, Mr. Vandomme will define big data, machine learning, and AI, and demystify buzz words often associated with those concepts. He will discuss algorithms associated with predictive modelling and machine learning, as well as how new technical frontiers such as image and language recognition can be applied to the real estate industry.

Mr. Huttram is the Director of Business Development and Marketing at Teranet. He is revealing exclusive market insights and update from Teranet.

For a full agenda and speaker bios, please click here: http://ci23.actonsoftware.com/acton/media/2216/teranets-market-insight-forum

The February 12, 2019 Teranet Market Insights Forum runs from 8:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. at the MaRS Discover District, 101 College Street, Toronto, Ontario.

Don’t miss the opportunity to connect with peers and learn about what’s trending in our industry. Register for the February 12, 2019 Market Insights Forum here: http://ci23.actonsoftware.com/acton/media/2216/teranets-market-insight-forum

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January 28, 2019

Last year in 2018 we saw many changes to the Canadian housing market. Now that 2019 is here, what will this year bring?

We’re breaking down real estate predictions for the year ahead. Here’s what’s on our radar:

1. Interest Rate Increases

In 2018, we saw Canadian interest rates rise from 1% to 1.75% and more hikes are on the horizon for 2019. Economists speculate we may see interest rates reach 2.25% by 2020.

This may seem small, but it could have a big impact on Canadian household debt. It may change what kinds of houses Canadians are able to afford and how well they can keep up with expenses, like utility payments.

2. Housing Prices

Overall, in 2018, house prices in Canada rose at a slow rate — the slowest since 2009 in some months. The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index has captured all of the data from the past year. Toronto and Vancouver have struggled, but other markets, like Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau, have recorded larger increases over the past few months.

In 2019, we may see more stabilization, but it will likely take more time before we return to where we were.

3. Dwelling Shifts

With increased interest rates and mortgage stress tests, homebuyers are gravitating towards different dwelling types — in particular condos and multi-family units. Supply for single-family residential homes is tight in major cities.

This may mean that multi-family units continue to rise in popularity. It could also mean that more families seek out different areas to reside in — for example, opting for an affordable small town instead of a bigger urban centre.

4. More Affordable Housing

In 2018, the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) joined forces with other agencies to lobby the provincial government for more affordable housing options for millennials. Particularly in Toronto, OREA has said there is a housing crisis.

This conversation is taking place across the country about how to create more affordable housing, especially with home prices on the rise. We expect these talks will continue into 2019.

5. Insurance Premiums May Rise

As of January 1, 2019, new MICAT (mortgage insurer capital adequacy test) guidelines are in effect, which could see default insurance premiums rise.

6. Technology

Digital transformation has been a buzzword for a while, but in 2019 we are entering a new age of real estate technology. On the residential front, this will look like more smart devices in homes — such as voice technology using Amazon’s Alexa or the Google Home

systems. Home buyers may also want to control lighting and other utilities from mobile devices and the like.

On the real estate sales front, more technology also amounts to more opportunities for sales professionals. We may see a surge in paperless real estate, or more automation being included in property evaluation, like aerial imagery from drones or viewing a home through virtual reality (VR).

No matter what changes affect the real estate market in 2019, GeoWarehouse can help you adapt. Our tools are accurate, up-to-date, and easy to access, meaning you’ll be able to stay agile and competitive.

Learn more by calling 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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As interest rates increase and mortgage rules shut some would-be buyers out of the housing market, there are less real estate leads available for business.

But there are still the same number of real estate sales professionals — and perhaps even more.

So, with more people going after less business, how can you stay competitive?

One word: agility.

Agility is the key to keeping your real estate business afloat and finding leads even when the numbers appear to be dwindling. Here’s how to put it into practice:

  1. Create relationships.

Relationships have always been important in real estate, but that is especially true in a crowded marketplace. You want to make sure that you have people in your corner to send referrals your way.

This might look like the people you know in your neighbourhood — past clients, friends, family, etc. — but it also applies to other people in the real estate industry.

Think about the people who are your allies. For instance, if you are a real estate agent, who else do you work with regularly — mortgage brokers, private lenders, real estate lawyers, investors, etc.

It could help to expand your industry networks. Chances are that the real estate market is getting tighter for everyone, so creating alliances could be a big help to landing good deals.

It can also help if you are on the same page with the tools you are using. For instance, if you source your property data from GeoWarehouse, your partners can access the same data (either through GeoWarehouse or our tool for mortgage professionals, Purview), which can make working together that much smoother.

  1. Look for motivated sellers and buyers.

When the market is flooded, it can be easy to find motivated clients — they might come right to your door! But as leads are scarcer, you may need to do more legwork to find opportunities.

Think about the demographics of your neighbourhoods. Are there elderly couples who may be looking to downsize? Or younger families who might be looking for more space? If you have a large condo selection you may be able to find renters who are motivated to buy.

Another motivated opportunity — divorce leads. Consider creating relationships with your local courthouses or family attorneys.

  1. Up your digital real estate marketing.

The last two suggestions can be significantly easier using digital marketing.

Social media, SEO targeting, and the like can all help you identify more real estate leads, but it can also help you create partnerships.

For instance, you might search Facebook or LinkedIn for groups with other mortgage professionals in your area.

You may find the local college or university groups and advertise affordable condo opportunities — or break down the true cost of renting vs. buying.

Or you might look for a support group in your area for divorces or consider creating a pay-per-click campaign centred on divorce leads.

A well-rounded approach is critical to remaining competitive.

  1. Search for properties that aren’t on the market yet.

If you are only searching for leads based on properties already on the market, or those seeking you out, it will be harder to stay competitive.

In some cases, you need to take lead generation into your own hands and plant the seed in your clients’ heads.

Demographics can be a great way to do this. You can use a demographic report to search for up-and-coming neighbourhoods, niche markets, areas popular with cultural or generational groups, and the like.

You can then use this information in your real estate marketing.

  1. Consider expanding your listing sources.

If you have traditionally sold one or two dwelling types, it may be time to expand your reach.

Condos, multi-family dwellings, and commercial real estate is rising in popularity even as single-family dwelling sales fall. Assess your portfolio and see whether there is room for you to enter a new market.

  1. Make use of data for up-to-the-minute information.

To truly stay agile, you need to make sure that you are working with data that supports your cause. If you’re using outdated information, inaccurate numbers, or real estate tools that don’t tell the whole story, then you’re already behind the competition.

That’s where a comprehensive property tool is your best ally.

For instance, our tool, GeoWarehouse, allows you to access demographic reports, comparable sales, advanced property searches, and much more. All of this combined can help you find the most qualified leads and stay ahead of your competitors.

The competition may be heating up, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing — it just means that you need to look for ways to stay even more agile.

GeoWarehouse’s tools put in position to focus your marketing and find the most qualified real estate leads. Learn more today. Call 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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November 26, 2018

There is one real estate opportunity that seems to only be growing in popularity: selling condos.

The Canadian condo market continues to boom. From 2016 to 2018, more than 14% of private mortgages came from condominiums.

In June 2018, residential construction starts across Canada surged to 248,000 units, driven by condos.

“While there has been some moderation in price growth and less speculative demand in the single-family home segment, prices for condominiums have continued to increase rapidly in some markets,” the Bank of Canada noted in its July 2018 Monetary Policy Report.

Condos have also benefitted from tougher mortgage rules and increased interest rates. As house prices have gone up, condos have remained the more affordable option. This means that not only are younger buyers opting for condos over traditional homes, but so are older buyers. For instance, some members of Generation X are choosing to move into condos for a smaller mortgage.

In 2017, three out of every four homes built were multi-family units, compared to 65% the decade before.

If you sell real estate in Canada, the signs are there that this is the time to consider selling condos, too.

Should you decide to join the condo market, or ramp up your efforts, here are some best practices to keep in mind:

  • Look at property details. Just like you would request a property report for a single-family dwelling, you should do the same for a condo. For instance, with a GeoWarehouse report you can see all condo units in a building, search by level, look up related PINs, access the full legal description, and more.
  • Don’t only consider constructed condos. Look also at pre-construction condos. New condo buildings are being constructed quickly, especially in larger urban areas like Toronto and Vancouver. Sell clients on making a decision early to beat the rush.
  • Condos aren’t just for younger buyers. As we mentioned above, condos used to be the millennials’ residence, but that’s not always the case these days. More and more older generations are choosing condos amid new mortgage rules, increased interest rates, or wanting to stay in an urban area. While millennials are certainly still a big market, they’re not the only market.
  • Look at what else the building offers. There may be additional assets included with a condo sale, like a parking space or storage lockers. Unlike a traditional dwelling type, a condo can come with other perks, too — security guards, an on-site gym, a luxury view, etc. Play up these features in your sales pitch.
  • Focus on unique features. Condos are a space sacrifice, especially if a potential buyer is used to a larger home. But because they are rising in popularity, there are many more options for comfortable condo living today, like urban agriculture, unique storage ideas, and two-in-one furniture items. Don’t be afraid to get creative with your staging.Access condo status certificates online. There is no need to request your condo status certificates by fax anymore. Instead, use a tool like GeoWarehouse to do it all online.

While the condo boom is continuing to thrive, it makes sense to take advantage if it’s in your area. GeoWarehouse can help you stay on top of the latest condo trends and access property information.

Learn more by calling 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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November 6, 2018

Real estate sales professionals, do you serve the condo market in your sales territory? If not, you should consider starting. If you already do, read on for tips to help you sell even more.

In many cities, the condo market is a sweet spot because it is the cheapest entry point into the housing market. For example, in Toronto or Vancouver you can still buy property for $500,000 in the condo market — handy for new homeowners who would be priced out of larger homes.

Whether you are selling in the Toronto condo market, the Vancouver condo market, or another area, there’s a lot of room for opportunity — especially if you use a real estate tool like GeoWarehouse.

In the past, when real estate agents would search for a condo address, it would be difficult to source the unit or suite. Now, however, they filter by floor, parking, or even by storage level in GeoWarehouse to get the unit data they seek.

With these search functionalities, the possibilities expand. Now you can use GeoWarehouse to get the same property report information on the condo market that you would on other dwelling types.

For instance, you could:

  • See all condo units in a building.
  • Search by level if the suite number or address is missing.
  • Look up related Property Identification Numbers (PINs) for condos to find the property report, including plans and surveys, valuation information, and sales history.
  • Access the full legal description for every condo unit.
  • Find out if the condo owner has additional assets, such as parking or storage lockers.
  • Look up common name information.
  • Search for condominium corporation information.
  • Find the date of condominium declaration.

The GeoWarehouse data team has been hard at work updating the addresses for close to a million condo properties in the past year. Can you think of how you could use this information?

Access your condo market data today to use in your real estate marketing and property searches. It’s all part of your GeoWarehouse subscription.

Not a subscriber? Contact us today. Call 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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September 12, 2018

In August the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.2% from the previous month.[1] Removing normal seasonal patterns (seasonal adjustment), the index would have been virtually flat, following retreats in June and July. In other words, after seasonal adjustment, the downtrend of June and July did not turn around in August.

Individual market indexes were up in eight of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. Seasonally adjusted, they would have been up in only four. The published (non-seasonally-adjusted) indexes were up strongly under any respect in Ottawa-Gatineau (1.4%), Hamilton (1.4%), Montreal (1.2%) and Quebec City (0.5%). However, gains in Toronto (0.3%), Edmonton (0.2%), Victoria (0.1%) and Winnipeg (0.1%) only reflected usual seasonal pressures. After seasonal adjustment, these indexes would have dropped or be flat. Indexes were down for Halifax (−0.6%), Calgary (−0.3%) and Vancouver (−0.4%).

The published Toronto index was up for a fifth straight month. But it is the opposite after seasonal adjustment as the index would then have been down for a fifth straight month. For Vancouver and Victoria it was a third straight month of decline after seasonal adjustment.

In August the composite index was up 1.4% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since November 2009. This weakness is partly attributable to a peak in August 2017 from which the index declined in following months. For this reason the 12-month rise is likely to accelerate in the months ahead. August 2018 indexes were down from a year earlier in Toronto (−3.3%), Hamilton (−0.7%), Calgary (−0.5%) and Edmonton (−0.3%). They were up from a year earlier in Winnipeg (1.3%), Quebec City (1.4%), Halifax (4.6%), Montreal (4.8%), Victoria (5.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.2%) and Vancouver (7.6%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 1.5% for Sudbury to 14.3% for Abbotsford-Mission.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

 

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The Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate is remaining at 1.5% for September of 2018.

The BOC increased interest rates from 1.25% to 1.5% in July of 2018 — the fourth increase in a year. On September 5, 2018, the BOC announced that interest rates would stay at 1.5% for now.

High cost of consumer price index inflation due to gasoline prices, the U.S. economy, and uncertain trade policies all influenced the BOC’s decision — as did the Canadian real estate market.

“Meanwhile, activity in the housing market is beginning to stabilize as households adjust to higher interest rates and changes in housing policies,” the BOC said in the September 5 announcement.

“Continuing gains in employment and labour income are helping to support consumption. As past interest rate increases work their way through the economy, credit growth has moderated and the household debt-to-income ratio is beginning to edge down.”

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index has seen some stabilization over the summer months, although that stabilization has largely been seasonal.

The new mortgage stress test for uninsured mortgages, introduced on January 1, 2018, appears to have affected the market. Mortgage Professionals Canada “Report on the Housing and Mortgage Market in Canada” for July 2018 stated that an estimated 100,000 Canadians have been prevented from buying a home as result of stress testing.

Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio decreased to $1.68 for every $1 earned as of June 2018, although that figure is still higher than it was a year earlier.

The BOC said in the September 5 announcement that interest rates will continue to increase gradually. Many economists are predicting at least one more hike in 2018 — likely in October.

The next interest rate announcement is scheduled for October 24, 2018.

The property data tools from GeoWarehouse can help real estate professionals adapt to changing housing interest rates and more. Contact us today. Call 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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