Archive for the 'Teranet-National Bank House Price Index' Category

May 14, 2019

April: Eighth consecutive month without a rise in the composite index

In April the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was flat from the previous month.[1] Apart from the 2009 recession period, it was the first April in 21 years of index history in which home prices showed no rise. And the run of months with no rise in the composite index has now extended to eight straight, for a cumulative decline of 1.7%. Component indexes were down on the month for six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed – Winnipeg (−2.0%), Halifax (−1.1%), Vancouver (−0.4%), Quebec City (−0.4%), Calgary (−0.3%) and Montreal (−0.2%). Indexes were up on the month for Ottawa-Gatineau (0.9%), Hamilton (0.8%), Toronto (0.3%), Victoria (0.2%) and Edmonton (0.1%).

The downtrend of prices has been especially marked in Calgary – 10 consecutive months with no rise, for a cumulative fall of 4.0% – and in Vancouver – nine consecutive months for a cumulative fall of 4.7%. The index for Winnipeg declined in six of the last seven months for a cumulative slide of 4.2%. The April advances in Victoria and Hamilton followed six-month runs of no rise, for cumulative declines of 3.4% and 1.7% respectively since September. The index for Edmonton is down 3.1% from last August despite advances in the last two months. The Ottawa-Gatineau index has declined 1.6% since December. On the other hand, Toronto, the largest housing market, has moderated the countrywide downtrend by retreating only 0.3% since August, thanks to a 2.4% rise in condo prices offsetting a 1.6% decline in other types of housing.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In only four of the 11 markets has the weakness of recent months resulted in 12-month declines: Calgary (−3.1%), Vancouver (−2.8%), Winnipeg (−0.8%) and Edmonton (−0.1%). The 12-month change was positive for Victoria (0.7%), Halifax (1.2%), Quebec City (2.0%), Hamilton (3.3%), Toronto (3.3%), Montreal (5.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.2%). The 11-market composite index was up 1.2% from a year earlier.

Indexes exist for seven urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe other than the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index. In April most of them were down from last August: Oshawa (−2.1%), Guelph (−2.0%), Brantford (−1.0%), St. Catharines (−0.9%) and Kitchener (−0.2%). Peterborough was flat over this period and the Barrie index edged up 0.2%.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. Since August four of them have trended down: Abbotsford-Mission (−5.3%), Kelowna (−3.8%), Sudbury (−3.4%) and Thunder Bay (−0.9%). Three have risen: Kingston (0.5%), London (3.8%) and Windsor (4.0%).

For the full report including historical data, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca.

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April 12, 2019

The Composite Index down for a sixth month in a row in March

In March the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.3% from the previous month.[1] Apart from the recession year 2009, it was the first March decline in the 20 years of index history. It was also the sixth consecutive monthly decline, for a cumulative drop of 1.7%. Indexes were down on the month for seven of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed – Ottawa-Gatineau (−1.5%), Victoria (−1.1%), Vancouver (−0.5%), Calgary (−0.5%), Toronto (−0.3%), Winnipeg (−0.3%) and Hamilton (−0.1%). Four markets were up: Halifax (0.8%), Quebec City (0.5%), Edmonton (0.4%) and Montreal (0.1%).

Most of the markets in the composite index have been trending down for months. For Calgary it was the ninth straight month without a rise (cumulative decline 3.7%), for Vancouver the eighth (cumulative −4.3%), for Victoria the sixth (−3.5%). The March rise of the Edmonton index had been preceded by six consecutive months without a rise (cumulative −3.2% over the seven months). Indexes for Winnipeg, Hamilton and Ottawa-Gatineau each retreated in all but one of the last six months (cumulative −2.2%, −2.4% and 2.3% respectively). The Toronto index has fallen in five of the last seven months (cumulative −0.2%). These markets are all in striking contrast with Montreal, which has declined in only one of the last 12 months (cumulative +5.5%). The Halifax index has advanced in each of the last five months (cumulative +2.0%).

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Despite the recent downtrends, only two markets are down from a year earlier – Calgary (−2.8%) and Vancouver (−2.1%). For Edmonton the 12-month gain was 0.1%, for Winnipeg 0.5%, for Victoria 0.7%, for Halifax 3.0%, for Hamilton 3.2%, for Toronto 3.3%, for Quebec City 3.9%, for Ottawa-Gatineau 5.2%, for Montreal 5.5%. The composite index was up 1.5% from a year earlier.

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite, indexes exist for seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. They are trending down like the indexes for Toronto, Hamilton and Ottawa-Gatineau. Guelph is down 0.4% from six months earlier, Kitchener −0.5%, Peterborough −0.8%, Oshawa −0.9%, St. Catharines −2.3% and Brantford −2.4%. The index for Barrie is up a marginal 0.1%.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five in Ontario and two in B.C. In March, four of these were down from six months earlier – Kelowna (−4.8%), Abbotsford-Mission (−3.8%), Sudbury (−2.8%) and Thunder Bay (−2.4%). The index for Kingston was flat. Windsor was up 1.8% from six months earlier, London 1.9%.

For the full report including historical data, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca.

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March 13, 2019

March 13, 2019

 Largest retreat for a February outside of recession

In February the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.4% from the previous month.[1] Except for the recession year of 2009, it was the largest February decline in 19 years of index history. Indexes lost ground in nine of the 11 metropolitan markets of the composite index: Victoria (−2.0%), Hamilton (−1.4%), Quebec City (−1.2%), Calgary (−0.8%), Vancouver (−0.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.7%), Winnipeg (−0.4%), Toronto (−0.2%) and Edmonton (−0.1%). The only indexes up from the month before were those for Montreal (0.4%) and Halifax (0.3%).

All five constituent markets in Western Canada have now joined the downtrend. For Calgary it was the eighth consecutive month without a rise, a cumulative decline of 3.2%, for Vancouver the seventh (a cumulative −3.9%), for Edmonton the sixth (−3.5%) and for Victoria the fifth (−2.5%). The index for Winnipeg has risen only once in the last five months (cumulative −1.9%). In central Canada, Hamilton has gone five months without a rise (cumulative −2.3%) and Ottawa-Gatineau has risen in only one of the last five months (cumulative −0.8%). The index for Montreal, in striking contrast, has declined only once in the last 11 months (cumulative gain 5.3%) and is the only constituent index that was up from six months earlier. For the composite index it was a fifth consecutive month without a rise, for a cumulative decline of 1.4%.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In changes from 12 months earlier, only three indexes showed the weakness that has more recently become apparent in several regions: Calgary (−2.7%), Edmonton (−1.6%) and Vancouver (−1.1%). The change from a year earlier remained positive for Halifax (1.2%), Winnipeg (1.3%), Victoria (2.8%), Hamilton (3.0%), Quebec City (3.5%), Toronto (3.6%), Montreal (5.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.0%). The composite index was up 1.9% from a year earlier.

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In February, they were down from the previous month for Kitchener (−1.3%), St. Catharines (−1.0%), Oshawa (−0.5%) and Guelph (−0.3%). The index for Barrie was flat. Indexes were up for Peterborough (0.5%) and Brantford (1.5%). As with Toronto, Hamilton and Ottawa-Gatineau, none of these indexes was higher than it had been six months earlier.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five in Ontario and two in B.C. In February four of them were down from the month before: Sudbury (−3.4%), Kingston (−2.6%), Abbotsford Mission (−0.9%) and Windsor (−0.4%%). Kelowna was up 0.3%, Thunder Bay 0.3% and London 0.9%. Only two of these seven, Windsor and London, were up from six months earlier. In other words, of 25 metropolitan markets surveyed, only three – Montreal, Windsor and London – were up from six months earlier, the weakest diffusion of six-month gains for any February since the recession.

For the full report including historical data, please visit https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/03/february2019/.

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Weakness Concentrated in the West

Author: GeoWarehouse
February 13, 2019

February 13, 2019

 Weakness concentrated in the West

In January the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.1% from the previous month.[1] It was the fifth consecutive month without a rise, the longest such run since March 2013, and was notable for marked retreats in the three largest markets of Western Canada: Edmonton (−0.8%), Calgary (−0.5%) and Vancouver (−0.3%). The index for Ottawa-Gatineau was also down (−0.3%). Indexes for Victoria and Hamilton were flat. There were monthly rises for Quebec City (+1.3%), Halifax (+0.7%), Montreal (+0.2%), Toronto (+0.1%) and Winnipeg (+0.1%).

Those three westernmost markets have been trending down markedly for months now. For Calgary it was a seventh month without a gain (cumulative decline -2.4%), for Vancouver the sixth (−3.2%), for Edmonton the fifth (−3.5%). There were smaller cumulative declines, after four months with no rises, in Victoria (−0.5%) and Hamilton (−1.0%). For Montreal, on the other hand, the index was up for the ninth time in 10 months for a cumulative 5.0% gain. Montreal and Quebec City were the only indexes at an all-time high in January.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

The softness of the three largest markets of the West was also apparent in the changes from a year earlier –Calgary down 2.8%, Edmonton down 2.4%, Vancouver flat. The eight other markets in the composite index were up from a year earlier – Winnipeg 0.7%, Halifax 1.7%, Quebec City 3.1%, Toronto 3.6%, Montreal 4.5%, Hamilton 4.6%, Victoria 4.9%, Ottawa-Gatineau 6.0%. For the composite index the 12-month rise was 2.2%.

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In January, they were up from the previous month for Peterborough (0.7%), Brantford (0.4%), Oshawa (0.1%) and Kitchener (0.1%), flat for Barrie, and down for Guelph (−0.2%) and St. Catharines (−0.6%). From August 2018, all seven indexes were down or at best flat: Peterborough −4.1%, Brantford −3.6%, Barrie −2.1%, Oshawa −2.0%, Guelph −1.3%, Kitchener −0.2%, St. Catharines flat.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. In January, indexes declined for Abbotsford-Mission (−0.2%), Thunder Bay (−0.3%), Windsor (−0.4%) and Kelowna (−1.3%) and rose for London (0.3%), Sudbury (1.0%) and Kingston (1.8%). From last August, indexes were down for Abbotsford-Mission (−1.9%), Kelowna (−3.2%) and Thunder Bay (−5,6 %), essentially flat for Sudbury, and up for London (+2.3%), Windsor (+2.5%) and Kingston (+2.6%).

For the full report including historical data, please visit https://housepriceindex.ca/2019/02/january2019/.

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In the final quarter of 2018, Canadian housing affordability worsened for a 14th consecutive quarter, found economic research from the National Bank Housing Affordability Monitor.

Using data from the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, National Bank Deputy Chief Economist Matthieu Arseneau and Economist Kyle Dahms released a quarterly report on January 24, 2019 analyzing the final three months of 2018.

And they found that house prices are getting less affordable in many markets.

The Housing Affordability Monitor featured a representative home for each of the 10 metropolitan markets in the House Price Index, including the representative price for the condo market and for the non-condo market, and the average household income needed for each.

Here’s what they found for October, November, December of 2018:

1. Toronto Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $902,916

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $165,755

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $536,082

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $98,413

2. Montreal Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $369,234

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $67,783

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $276,889

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $50,831

3. Vancouver Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $1,318,768

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $242,096

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $638,842

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $117,277

4. Calgary Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $494,689

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $90,814

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $266,107

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $48,851

5. Edmonton Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $422,508

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $77,563

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $231,117

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $42,428

6. Ottawa-Gatineau Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $428,595

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $78,680

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $261,454

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $47,997

7. Quebec City Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $286,491

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $52,593

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $211,768

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $38,876

8. Winnipeg Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $321,259

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: 58,976

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $223,614

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $41,050

9. Hamilton Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $598,274

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $109,829

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $445,629

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $81,807

10. Victoria Housing Market

Non-Condo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market: $850,469

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home: $156,127

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market: $485,937

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo: $89,207

In some markets, the quarterly report found that the gap between condo and non-condo affordability is shrinking. The worst deteriorations in affordability in Q4 were in Victoria, Toronto, and Vancouver. The only markets showing an improvement were Calgary and Edmonton. Countrywide, affordability worsened.

View the full 2018 Q4 report from the National Bank here: https://housepriceindex.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/NBFM-Housing-Affordability-Monitor-Q4_2018-Eng.pdf.

No matter what direction Canadian housing affordability heads, GeoWarehouse has tools that make you the property expert. Uncover real estate trends and opportunities before they hit the market.

Become a subscriber today. Call 1-866-237-5937 or visit www.geowarehouse.ca.

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January 14, 2019

JANUARY 14, 2018

Home prices trended down in the second half of 2018

The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM for December was down 0.3% from the previous month.[1] It was the third consecutive monthly retreat. The component indexes were down for seven of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed: Edmonton (−1.4%), Vancouver (−1.2%), Winnipeg (−0.9%), Calgary (−0.6%), Victoria (−0.4%), Hamilton (−0.4%) and Quebec City (−0.4%). Indexes were up for Ottawa-Gatineau (1.0%), Montreal (0.4%), Toronto (0.2%) and Halifax (0.1%).

The recent trend of home prices is clearly downward in most metropolitan markets. For Calgary December was a sixth straight month without an index rise, a cumulative decline of 2.0%; for Vancouver a fifth straight month and a cumulative loss of 2.9%; for Edmonton a fourth straight month and a cumulative loss of 2.7%. For Victoria, Winnipeg and Hamilton it was a third straight month, with cumulative losses of 0.5%, 1.6% and 1.0% respectively. The Halifax index was down 1.6% from five months ago, Quebec City and Toronto were down −0.8% and −0.2% respectively from four months ago. Only the Ottawa-Gatineau and Montreal indexes finished 2018 in strength, rising 7.9% and 4.8% respectively from March to December and both ending the year at all-time highs.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

 

 

 

The weakness of most of the country’s large urban markets in the second half of the year meant, as table below shows, that the index was down of flat for five markets for calendar 2018Calgary (−2.6%), Edmonton (−0.9%), Winnipeg (−0.5%), Quebec City (−0.1%) and Halifax (flat). For a calendar year, it was the narrowest diffusion of 12-month gains since the recession year of 2008. Up from a year earlier despite second-half retreats were Victoria (6.0%), Hamilton (4.4%), Toronto (3.7%) and Vancouver (1.4%). As expected, Ottawa-Gatineau (5.9%) and Montreal (4.4%) were among the leaders. The 12-month advance of the composite index, at 2.5%, was the smallest since 2009.

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. From August to December, indexes were down for Brantford (−4.0%), Oshawa (−2.1%), Barrie (−2.1%), Guelph (−1.1%) and Kitchener (−0.3%). From September to December, the Peterborough index fell 5.1%. Only the St. Catharines index with its 12-month gain of 8.6% ended the year at a record.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. From August to December, indexes were down for Thunder Bay (−5.3%), Abbotsford-Mission (−1.7%) and Sudbury (−1.2%), and from September to December the index for Kelowna was down 2.0%. Three of these indexes did not display weakness in 2018, finishing the year with strong 12-month gains: Windsor (14.7%), London (10.7%) and Kingston (9.9%).

For the full report including historical data, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca.

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DECEMBER 12, 2018

Home price indexes down in November in all markets except Quebec City, Halifax and Victoria

In November the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.3% from the previous month.[1] A November decline is not the norm – this was only the fourth in 20 years of index history. It was the second consecutive monthly decline. November’s retreat was quite broad-based: component indexes were down on the month in eight of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed – Vancouver (−0.6%), Calgary (−0.6%), Edmonton (−0.6%), Winnipeg (−0.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.4%), Toronto (−0.1%), Hamilton (−0.1%) and Montreal (−0.1%). The index for Victoria was flat. Indexes were up for Halifax (0.1%) and Quebec City (1.2%). The decline of the Montreal index, the first in eight months, was hardly enough to end its upward trend over those months – a cumulative rise of 4.4%, consistent with seller’s-market conditions. Market conditions are quite different in Calgary, where the index has now declined four months in a row, for a cumulative loss of 1.4%. The index for Toronto has retreated 0.4% over the last three months.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In November the composite index was up 3.1% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in the last three months thanks to an abrupt index decline from August to October of 2017. As a result of gains earlier this year, November 12‑month rises were above the countrywide average in Victoria (5.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.3%), Montreal (4.4%), Hamilton (4.4%), Vancouver (3.9%) and Toronto (3.3%). Indexes were also up from a year earlier in Winnipeg (2.3%) and Halifax (1.7%). Indexes were down from a year earlier in Quebec City (−0.3%), Edmonton (−0.4%) and Calgary (−2.7%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In November, most of these were down or at best flat from the previous monthBrantford (−0.8%), Guelph (−0.6%), Oshawa (−0.6%), Peterborough (−0.3%), Barrie (flat) and St. Catharines (flat). The exception was Kitchener (+0.6%). Two of these indexes, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. All were up from a year earlier, the gains ranging 1.3% for Oshawa to 8.9% for Peterborough.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. In November five of them were down from the previous month: Sudbury (−1.6%), Abbotsford-Mission (−0.5%), London (−0.3%), Kelowna (−0.1%) and Thunder Bay (−0.1%). Two of them were upWindsor (+0.6%) and Kingston (+0.6%). The changes of these indexes from a year earlier ranged from −3.0% for Thunder Bay to +12.8 % for Windsor.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca.

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NOVEMBER 15, 2018

Home price index down in October in all component markets except Montreal

In October the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.4% from the previous month.[1] An October decline is not the norm – this was only the fourth in 20 years of index history. It was also the first index decline in eight months. The most striking aspect of the retreat is its diffusion. For the first time since December 2014, the component indexes for 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed were down on the month – Victoria (−0.1%), Toronto (−0.2%), Winnipeg (−0.2%), Calgary (−0.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.4%), Hamilton (−0.5%), Edmonton (−0.7%), Vancouver (−0.8%), Quebec City (−1.0%) and Halifax (−1.0%). The exception was Montreal, whose seventh consecutive monthly gain (+0.2%) was consistent with its seller’s-market conditions. For Calgary it was the 10th month without a rise in the last 13 months, hardly surprising considering the worsening of market conditions over the period. For Vancouver it was the third consecutive month without a rise.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In October the composite index was up 2.8% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in August and September because a year earlier the index fell abruptly in those two months. October 12-month rises were well above the countrywide average in Victoria (5.2%) and Vancouver (4.6%) thanks to gains earlier this year and in Montreal (5.0%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (5.0%) thanks to gains in the last six months. Indexes were also up from a year earlier in Winnipeg (3.4%), Hamilton (2.8%), Halifax (2.4%) and Toronto (1.9%). Indexes were down from a year earlier in Edmonton (−0.5%), Quebec City (−0.6%) and Calgary (−1.4%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for sevenother urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In October, all of these were down from the previous month. Two of them, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. In October. Three of these were down from the previous month. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from -0.1% in Thunder Bay to 11.4% in Windsor.

Of the 25 metropolitan-market indexes, only five did not decrease in October, the smallest diffusion of gains since December 2012.

For the full report including historical data, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca.

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October 12, 2018

OCTOBER 12, 2018

National Composite Index: Flat in September

In September the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM came in flat from the month before,1 matching the historical average for September since 2010. Only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed gains, the weakest diffusion in six months. These were Winnipeg (1.1%), Montreal (0.5%), Victoria (0.5%), Hamilton (0.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.1%). For Hamilton and Montreal, it was the sixth consecutive monthly rise, for cumulative gains of 5.8% and 4.3% respectively. For Ottawa-Gatineau it was the fifth straight rise for a cumulative gain of 7.8%. Of course, these gains incorporate usual upward price pressure from April to August. For Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau, the rising trend still persists even with correction of these seasonal effects.

The indexes for Vancouver and Edmonton came in flat on the month. For Edmonton it was a sixth straight month without a decline, for a cumulative gain of 3.4% over the period. Indexes were down on the month for Toronto (−0.1%), Calgary (−0.1%), Halifax (−0.2%) and Quebec City (−0.6%). If the Vancouver index were corrected for seasonal variation, it would have shown retreats in each of the last four months. If the Calgary index were so corrected it would have shown retreats in each of the last three months. This observation is consistent with declines in home sales reported by the real estate boards of these two markets.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In September the composite index was up 2.1% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in August because the composite index began declining in September 2017. Thanks to advances earlier this year, the 12-month rise was well above the countrywide average in Vancouver (6.2%), Victoria (5.5%) and Halifax (4.8%), while very recent advances resulted in relatively large 12-month gains in Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%) and Montréal (4.8%). Gains over a year earlier were smaller in Winnipeg (2.8%), Hamilton (1.4%) and Quebec City (0.7%). Three indexes were down from a year earlier: Edmonton (−0.5%), Toronto (−0.8%) and Calgary (−1.3%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other metropolitan areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 0.9% in Sudbury to 11.3% in Abbotsford-Mission and Windsor.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

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September 12, 2018

In August the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.2% from the previous month.[1] Removing normal seasonal patterns (seasonal adjustment), the index would have been virtually flat, following retreats in June and July. In other words, after seasonal adjustment, the downtrend of June and July did not turn around in August.

Individual market indexes were up in eight of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. Seasonally adjusted, they would have been up in only four. The published (non-seasonally-adjusted) indexes were up strongly under any respect in Ottawa-Gatineau (1.4%), Hamilton (1.4%), Montreal (1.2%) and Quebec City (0.5%). However, gains in Toronto (0.3%), Edmonton (0.2%), Victoria (0.1%) and Winnipeg (0.1%) only reflected usual seasonal pressures. After seasonal adjustment, these indexes would have dropped or be flat. Indexes were down for Halifax (−0.6%), Calgary (−0.3%) and Vancouver (−0.4%).

The published Toronto index was up for a fifth straight month. But it is the opposite after seasonal adjustment as the index would then have been down for a fifth straight month. For Vancouver and Victoria it was a third straight month of decline after seasonal adjustment.

In August the composite index was up 1.4% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since November 2009. This weakness is partly attributable to a peak in August 2017 from which the index declined in following months. For this reason the 12-month rise is likely to accelerate in the months ahead. August 2018 indexes were down from a year earlier in Toronto (−3.3%), Hamilton (−0.7%), Calgary (−0.5%) and Edmonton (−0.3%). They were up from a year earlier in Winnipeg (1.3%), Quebec City (1.4%), Halifax (4.6%), Montreal (4.8%), Victoria (5.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.2%) and Vancouver (7.6%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 1.5% for Sudbury to 14.3% for Abbotsford-Mission.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

 

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