Archive for the 'Teranet-National Bank House Price Index' Category

September 12, 2018

In August the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.2% from the previous month.[1] Removing normal seasonal patterns (seasonal adjustment), the index would have been virtually flat, following retreats in June and July. In other words, after seasonal adjustment, the downtrend of June and July did not turn around in August.

Individual market indexes were up in eight of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. Seasonally adjusted, they would have been up in only four. The published (non-seasonally-adjusted) indexes were up strongly under any respect in Ottawa-Gatineau (1.4%), Hamilton (1.4%), Montreal (1.2%) and Quebec City (0.5%). However, gains in Toronto (0.3%), Edmonton (0.2%), Victoria (0.1%) and Winnipeg (0.1%) only reflected usual seasonal pressures. After seasonal adjustment, these indexes would have dropped or be flat. Indexes were down for Halifax (−0.6%), Calgary (−0.3%) and Vancouver (−0.4%).

The published Toronto index was up for a fifth straight month. But it is the opposite after seasonal adjustment as the index would then have been down for a fifth straight month. For Vancouver and Victoria it was a third straight month of decline after seasonal adjustment.

In August the composite index was up 1.4% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since November 2009. This weakness is partly attributable to a peak in August 2017 from which the index declined in following months. For this reason the 12-month rise is likely to accelerate in the months ahead. August 2018 indexes were down from a year earlier in Toronto (−3.3%), Hamilton (−0.7%), Calgary (−0.5%) and Edmonton (−0.3%). They were up from a year earlier in Winnipeg (1.3%), Quebec City (1.4%), Halifax (4.6%), Montreal (4.8%), Victoria (5.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.2%) and Vancouver (7.6%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 1.5% for Sudbury to 14.3% for Abbotsford-Mission.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

 

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In July the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.8% from the previous month.[1] As in June, the gain might seem large but was below the historical average for the month (1.0% for July). If the index were purged from seasonal variations, the so-called “seasonally adjusted” index would have retreated in June and would have been flat in July.

As in May and June, prices were up in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, led by Ottawa-Gatineau (2.3%), Winnipeg (1.9%), Montreal (1.3%), Halifax (1.2%) and Hamilton (1.1%). For Toronto the index rise matched the countrywide average of 0.8%. The index was also up for Edmonton (0.7%), Quebec City (0.6%), Vancouver (0.4%) and Victoria (0.4%). The index for Calgary was flat.

The published (non-seasonally-adjusted) Toronto index rose for a fourth straight month in July. In contrast, the seasonally adjusted index would have declined for a fourth straight month. This means that the recent monthly rises in the published index reflected only seasonal pressures instead of an underlying trend. The retreat of the seasonally adjusted index over this period was due to non-condo housing[2] (−2.1%); the seasonally adjusted condo subindex was up 1.6%. These numbers are consistent with market conditions, tighter for condos than for other housing. The monthly rise of the Vancouver and Victoria indexes has slowed markedly since last September. Seasonally adjusted, both indexes would have been down in July for a second consecutive month. The index for Montreal stands out for its advance in 17 of the 19 months since January 2017, a showing equalled only by Vancouver.

 Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In July the composite index was up 1.8% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since July 2013 and a 13th consecutive deceleration from the record gain of 14.2% during the year ending June 2017. The main contributor to the slowdown was Toronto, the largest metropolitan market, down 4.0% from a year earlier, followed by Hamilton (−1.5%) and Calgary (−0.1%). There were small 12-month rises in Edmonton (0.3%) and Quebec City (0.6%) and rises exceeding the countrywide average in Winnipeg (2.5%), Montreal (4.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%), Halifax (5.5%), Victoria (6.8%) and Vancouver (10.6%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these (Barrie and Oshawa) were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 2.4% for Thunder Bay to 17.6% for Abbotsford-Mission.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

 

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In June the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.9% from May. Though large at first glance, the increase was the third-smallest for June in the last 14 years. If we ignore the seasonal component of monthly variations, we cannot speak of a soaring index. The latest run of monthly increases is merely a recovery of ground lost in the second half of last year. The composite index is now barely above its previous peak of August 2017.

As in May, prices were up in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, led by Ottawa-Gatineau (2.0%), Hamilton (1.8%), Edmonton (1.5%), Victoria (1.3%), Toronto (1.2%) and Halifax (1.0%). The Toronto rise was the smallest since 2008 for a month of June. The Quebec City index rose apace with the countrywide average of 0.9%. Gains were smaller in Montreal (0.7%), Vancouver (0.6%) and Calgary (0.6%), and the index for Winnipeg was down 1.0% on the month. The rise in Vancouver was the fourth-smallest since 2001 for a month of June.

Over the first half of the year the Toronto index rose at an annual rate of 5.7%. For the condo segment the rate was 12.1%, for other housing only 2.9%, reflecting a tight seller’s market for condos. The Vancouver story is similar: condo segment up 17.6% annualized since last September, other dwelling types up 4.9%.

Five of the 11 markets reached a new high in June: Vancouver, Victoria, Montreal, Halifax and Ottawa-Gatineau. The market furthest from its previous peak was Toronto, down 4.8% from its reading of last July.

 Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In June the composite index was up 2.9% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since October 2013 and a 12th consecutive deceleration from the record 12-month gain of 14.2% last June. The January 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (13.3%), Victoria (9.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (4.7%), Montreal (3.6%) and Halifax (3.2%). The 12-month gain was slim in Winnipeg (1.3%), Quebec City (0.7%), Calgary (0.3%) and Edmonton (0.2%). Indexes were down from a year earlier for Hamilton (−0.4%) and Toronto (−2.8%).

In addition to the Toronto and Hamilton indexes, included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In June, three of these seven (Barrie, Kitchener and Oshawa) were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their various peaks of July, August or September 2017. The other four (Guelph, Brantford, St. Catharines and Peterborough) reached new peaks. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The indexes for these last two, Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna were, like those for Vancouver and Victoria, at new peaks in June. The same was true of the indexes for Thunder Bay, Windsor, London and Kingston in Ontario.

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

 

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June 13, 2018

In May the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  was up 1.0% from the previous month. This confirms the index stabilization following the downward trend that prevailed over the second half of 2017. The last monthly gain is one tick less than the May average of 1.1% over the 20 years of index history. The monthly advance was led by the metropolitan markets of Victoria (1.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.7%), Toronto (1.3%), Winnipeg (1.3%) and Vancouver (1.0%). The rise of the Toronto index matched its historical average for May. The rise of the Ottawa-Gatineau index was not enough to make up its cumulative decline over the previous four months. There were smaller monthly advances in the indexes for Edmonton (0.7%), Quebec City (0.6%), Hamilton (0.4%), Calgary (0.4%) and Montreal (0.3%). The index for Halifax was flat.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Because of a rapid advance from May to August last year, the composite index was nevertheless up 4.5% from a year earlier. It was the smallest 12-month rise since June 2015 and an 11thconsecutive deceleration from last June’s record 12-month gain of 14.2%. The increase was led by Vancouver (15.4%) and Victoria (10.3%), the only two markets whose gains exceeded the countrywide average. The 12-month rise was 3.9% in Ottawa-Gatineau, 3.9% in Halifax, 3.6% in Montreal, 2.1% in Winnipeg, 1.9% in Quebec City, 1.8%

For the full report including historical data, please visit: www.housepriceindex.ca

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After a flat March, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  rose 0.2% in April. In the 20-year history of the index it was the fourth-smallest April advance, after those of 2009 (a recession year), 2013 and 2015. There were nevertheless gains in eight of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed: Quebec City (1.5%), Hamilton (0.8%), Halifax (0.6%), Vancouver (0.3%), Edmonton (0.3%), Toronto (0.2%), Montreal (0.2%) and Victoria (0.2%). The index for Calgary was flat. Indexes for the remaining two markets were down on the month, Ottawa-Gatineau −0.1% and Winnipeg −0.8%.

It was the 14th rise in 16 months for the Vancouver index, which has set records in each of the last five months. However, its recent gains have been smaller than before, which is consistent with the loosening of market conditions apparent from data published by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. The cooling of the Vancouver index advances has been the most obvious for dwellings other than condos. The Toronto index is down 7.1% from its peak of last July, its decline concentrated in dwellings other than condos. The raw index* for Toronto declined similarly over that period, both for the market as a whole and for the non-condo segment. The index for neighbouring Hamilton market is down 5.2% from August, with declines in six of the last eight months. The index for Ottawa-Gatineau has declined in six of the last seven months, for a cumulative retreat of 2.4% since September. For Calgary it was a fifth consecutive month without a gain. The index for Edmonton has retreated in five of the last seven months. In sum, the composite index in April was down 1.6% from its peak of last August, although it stabilized towards the end of last year.

Thanks to strong advances from April to August last year, the composite index was nevertheless still up 5.6% from a year earlier. It was the smallest 12-month rise since September 2015 and a 10th consecutive deceleration from last June’s record 12-month gain of 14.2%. The April 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (15.9%) and Victoria (11.0%), the only markets with 12-month advances exceeding the countrywide average. They were followed by Halifax (5.3%), Hamilton (4.5%), Montreal (3.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (3.0%), Quebec City (2.4%), Toronto (1.9%), Winnipeg (1.2%), Edmonton (0.4%) and Calgary (0.2%).

In addition to the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other metropolitan areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In April, six of the seven (Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Barrie and Oshawa), like Toronto and Hamilton, were well below their various peaks of July, August or September 2017. The exception was Peterborough. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The indexes for these last two, Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna, like those for Vancouver and Victoria, were at record highs in April. The same was true of the indexes for Windsor and Thunder Bay. The indexes for Sudbury, Kingston and London were only slightly off peak.

The historical data of the Teranet–National Bank House Price Indices™ are available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

 

 

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated from sale prices recorded in public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in 11 metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the 11 metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census**, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.416 trillion, or 64% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

*Note on methodology: The current-month data used to calculate the index are those of closed sales registered in the provincial land registry. To illustrate the home price trend, the published indexes of the 11 metropolitan markets entering into the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index™ are moving averages of the last three months of raw indexes, a procedure that evens out month-to-month fluctuations. More granular monthly data are available upon request, subject to subscription fees. For our full methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca

** Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada

By:

Marc Pinsonneault

Senior Economist

Economy & Strategy Team

National Bank Financial Group

Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

 

 

 

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House prices stayed flat in March of 2018, according to data from the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™.

This past month was the first time outside of a recession that the March composite index wasn’t up at least 0.2 percentage points from February and the first time outside of a recession when March indexes were only up for four of the 11 metropolitan markets.

The Toronto region was flat, and six other markets were down for the month.

Vancouver’s house price index increased — its 13th month-over-month increase in the past 15 months, taking prices to a new high. In comparison, the Toronto market was flat in March and over the past 15 months has gone down 7.3 per cent from its house price peak in July of 2017. In Toronto, however, its condo segment has remained unchanged since July.

The increase in Vancouver was the main reason the house price index stayed flat in March and didn’t decline overall.

“Without Vancouver, the composite index would have declined in March, and in five of the six preceding months,” National Bank economist Marc Pinsonneault said in a research note.

Vancouver’s index is expected to see more increases over the coming months. The average Vancouver region sale price was a record $906,896 in March.

Outside of Vancouver and Toronto, other markets continue to vary. Winnipeg, Quebec City, and Victoria all showed increases in March, but Montreal, Hamilton, Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau, Halifax, and Edmonton were all down. In Ontario, Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa, and Sudbury all showed declines from last July.

Hamilton has particularly declined, dropping 5.9% cumulatively since August of 2017.

The March 2018 house price index was notable for two other reasons: it’s the smallest 12-month rise since May of 2016, and it’s the ninth consecutive deceleration from the record 14.2% of last June.

According to Pinsonneault, the flat reading in March reflects that both the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets have begun to flatten out.

“The decline was the most obvious in Toronto,” he wrote. “This drop was likely triggered by Ontario’s implementation of the 15 per cent [foreign buyer tax] followed by stricter rules for qualification for a mortgage and a rise in mortgage rates.”

Pinsonneault wrote that we could see national home prices remaining relatively even in the coming months.

A TD Bank commentary on the March house price index noted that mortgage rates have recently fallen, making the overall cost of ownership less expensive for buyers.

TD Economics analyst, Sonny Scarfone, provided further analysis to the Canadian Press.

“Markets experiencing a decline in home prices are facing a rising inventory of homes for sale on the market, following what appears to have been a number of years of over building,” Scarfone wrote.

“Meanwhile, home price pressures remain the strongest in cities facing tighter conditions — as a low number of homes for sale on the market has put the bargaining power in the hands of the seller. This is particularly true in Calgary and the single-family home market in Toronto. However, these cities also have a record number of new homes currently under construction, which should help alleviate some supply pressures in the coming months.”

See the full March 2018 House Price Index report at https://housepriceindex.ca/#maps=c11.

GeoWarehouse’s tools help your real estate business adapt to changing house prices. Identify property value, source new real estate leads, learn comparable sales, and more with our features. Find out about our services at www.geowarehouse.ca.

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The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™  was unchanged in March – the first time outside a recession when the March composite index was not up at least 0.2 percentage points from February and the first time outside a recession when March indexes were up for only four of the 11 metropolitan markets of the composite index – Victoria (1.0%), Vancouver (0.5%), Winnipeg (0.5%) and Quebec City (0.1%). The index for Toronto was flat. Indexes for the other six markets were all down on the month: Montreal −0.2%, Hamilton −0.3%, Calgary −0.4%, Ottawa-Gatineau −0.7%, Halifax −1.0%, Edmonton −1.3%.

The rise of the Vancouver index was the 13th in 15 months, taking it to a new high. In recent months its gains have been smaller, consistent with the relaxation of the market reported by the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board. The Toronto index is down 7.3% from its peak of last July. The raw (unsmoothed) Toronto index* has declined a similar 7.9% over that period, though its condo segment is unchanged from July – all other types of housing taken together are down 10.4%. The index for neighbouring Hamilton has declined in six of the last seven months, for a cumulative 5.9% drop from its August peak. The Ottawa-Gatineau index has declined in five of the last six months and is down 2.4% from its September peak. The Calgary and Edmonton indexes are also down from six months ago.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Because of the rise of the composite index from March to August last year, its reading for March 2018 was up 6.6% from a year earlier. This is the smallest 12-month rise since May 2016 and a ninth consecutive deceleration from the record 14.2% of last June. The March 12-month rise of the composite index was exceeded only by the indexes for Vancouver (15.4%) and Victoria (12.5%), which were followed by Halifax (6.1%), Hamilton (5.9%), Toronto (4.3%), Montreal (4.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (3.0%), Winnipeg (2.9%), Calgary (0.4%) and Edmonton (0.2%). The Quebec City index was down 0.4% from a year earlier.

Indexes exist for seven Golden Horseshoe markets outside Toronto and Hamilton. Six of them – Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines and Oshawa – were down from last July, the exception being Peterborough. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario. Of the total of 14, 13 were up from a year earlier, with rises ranging from 4.4% in Barrie, Ont., to 25.3% in Abbotsford-Mission, B.C.  The index for Sudbury was down 3.1% from a year earlier.

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: housepriceindex.ca

 

*Note on methodology: The current-month data used to calculate the index are those of closed sales registered in the provincial land registry. To illustrate the home price trend, the published indexes of the 11 metropolitan markets entering into the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index™ are moving averages of the last three months of raw indexes. This procedure evens out month-to-month fluctuations. More granular monthly data are available upon request, possibly subject to subscription fees. For further information about the methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca

Copyright 2018 Teranet Inc. and National Bank of Canada

Teranet is located at 123 Front Street West, Suite 700.  Toronto ON.  M5J 2M2. 1.855.787.8439
National Bank is located at 1155 Metcalfe, 5th floor, Montreal PQ H3B 4S9. 1.800.361.8838

 

 

 

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In February the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM retreated 0.1% from the previous month, following December and January rises that had interrupted a downtrend. It was the first February decline since 2013. The index was up in only three of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, the fewest since October 2014: Vancouver (+0.4%), Hamilton (+0.2%) and Halifax (+0.8%). The index for Victoria was flat on the month and the other seven component indexes were down: Toronto −0.1%, Montreal −0.3%, Ottawa-Gatineau −0.7%, Edmonton −0.8%, Calgary −0.8%, Winnipeg −1.0%, Quebec City −1.5%.

For Vancouver it was the 12th rise in 14 months, taking its index to a new record. However, this market’s raw (unsmoothed) index was down 1.3% on the month, a retreat coinciding with a cooling of home sales as reported by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. The raw index for Toronto declined after three consecutive rises. In previous months, observers had noted a certain haste on the part of buyers to beat the entry into effect of tougher conditions for obtaining an uninsured mortgage. The advance of the Hamilton index interrupted a run of five declines. The retreat of the Montreal index was the first in 14 months. This is not a concern since the Greater Montréal Real Estate Board reported the strongest sales in six years for the first two months of a year.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

The composite index in February was up 7.5% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since March 2016 and an eighth consecutive deceleration from last June’s record 12-month gain of 14.2%. The February 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (15.8%), Victoria (12.4%) and Hamilton (8.4%). It was below the countrywide average but still respectable in Toronto (6.2%), Halifax (5.3%), Montreal (5.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (3.7%) and Winnipeg (3.0%). For Calgary it was a minimal 0.6%. There were declines from a year earlier in the indexes for Edmonton (−0.3%) and Quebec City (−2.3%).

Of the 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes for seven were down from the previous month. Indexes for all 14 were up from a year earlier, with rises ranging from 1.2% in Sudbury, Ontario, to 23.9% in Abbotsford-Mission, B.C.

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: https://housepriceindex.ca

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In December the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  edged up 0.2% from the previous month, interrupting a three-month run of declines. However, only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed index increases. The one-tick rise of the composite index was due to a 1.3% jump of the index for the large Vancouver market. The other indexes showing gains were Winnipeg (1.9%), Halifax (1.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (0.4%) and Edmonton (0.1%); without Vancouver their combined gain would not have offset the combined decline of the indexes for Toronto (−0.3%), Victoria (−1.0%), Calgary (−0.6%), Hamilton (−0.5%) and Montreal (−0.2%). The index for Quebec City was flat.

For the Toronto index it was a fifth consecutive decline. However, the raw index* for Toronto rose 0.2% in November and 0.1% in December. If it edges up again or stays flat in January, the sequence of monthly declines of the smoothed index would then be interrupted. The upticks of Toronto’s raw index in the last two months of 2017 can be laid to the desire of some buyers to acquire housing before January 1, when a new and stiffer eligibility rule comes into effect on qualification for an uninsured mortgage.

  Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

For the Vancouver index it was an eighth consecutive month without a decline, a period over which it rose 13.2%. That breaks down as 16.7% for condos and 10.2% for other housing. Vancouver, Winnipeg and Halifax were the only indexes to reach a new record in December.

In December the composite index was up 9.1% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month gain since May 2016 and the fifth straight deceleration from record 14.2% gains in June and July. The December 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (16.0%), Victoria (11.5%), Hamilton (11.3%) and Toronto (9.0%). Montreal’s 12-month gain was 7.0%, less than the countrywide average but noteworthy. The 12-month advance was well above the rate of inflation in Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%), Winnipeg (4.0%) and Halifax (3.6%). It was much smaller in Calgary (0.5%), Quebec City (0.4%) and Edmonton (0.2%).

Among 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes for Sudbury, Guelph and St. Catharines–Niagara were down for a third consecutive month, the index for Oshawa for a fifth. All 14 markets were nevertheless up from a year earlier, though the 12-month increase ranged widely, from 3.8% in Thunder Bay to 19.0% in London.

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: www.housepriceindex.ca

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In November, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was down 0.5% from the previous month, the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest for a month of November outside of a recession. Indexes were down for four of the 11 metropolitan areas surveyed: Toronto (−1.4%), Hamilton (−1.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.8%) and Edmonton (−0.7%). Indexes for the two West Coast markets, Vancouver and Victoria, were flat. Indexes were up for Montreal (1.0%), Quebec City (0.9%), Halifax (0.8%), (Calgary 0.7%) and Winnipeg (0.5%). For Toronto, it was the fourth straight monthly decline, for a total drop of 7.1%. For Hamilton, it was the third straight decline, for Ottawa-Gatineau and Edmonton the second.

However, the raw index* for Toronto was up 0.2% in November after four consecutive monthly declines totalling −8.5%. The retreat did not occur uniformly across all types of housing. The condo sub-index fell 4.4% in two months and then partly recovered with a gain of 2.3% over the last two months. Meanwhile, the sub-index for other types of housing declined in each of the last five months, for a total drop of −10.8%. Last month’s decline was the smallest of the five at −0.6%. November’s increase in the raw index could have been caused by some buyers rushing to buy before the implementation in January of the new ruling on qualification to an uninsured mortgage. The assumption of a rush is based on the fact that sales rose from October to November, bucking the usual seasonal trend.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

The stabilization of the Vancouver index in November came after six consecutive months of all-time highs. The condo subindex has been especially vigorous, 10 consecutive months of increases for a total rise of 19.0%. The Montreal and Halifax indexes were also at record highs.

In November the composite index was up 9.2% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month gain since June 2016 and a fourth consecutive deceleration from record 12-month gains of 14.2% in both June and July. The November 12-month rise was led by Victoria (14.0%), Vancouver (13.5%), Hamilton (12.3%) and Toronto (10.6%). The 12-month advance was much smaller in Montreal (6.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (4.9%), Halifax (2.1%), Calgary (1.8%), Quebec City (1.0%), Winnipeg (0.8%) and Edmonton (0.2%).

Among 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes for Barrie and Oshawa were down for a fourth straight month and those for Brantford and Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo for a third straight month. All 14 indexes were nevertheless up from a year earlier, though the 12-month increase ranged widely from 3.7% in Thunder Bay to 19.3% in the St. Catharines–Niagara market

For the full report including historical data, please visit our website: https://housepriceindex.ca

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